Keith Law Ranks Jays Minor League System Third

Published February 8, 2012 Jays Talk , Prospect Reports Leave a Comment
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Keith Law will name the Toronto Blue Jays farm system number three in baseball tomorrow when ESPN.com rolls out its Annual Top 100 prospects.  The Jays were behind only the San Diego Padres (#1) and Tampa Bay Rays (#2).  I can see San Diego being number one with an extremely deep collection of arms currently in their system but outside of super prospect Matt Moore I just don’t see the Tampa Bay system being better or more complete than the Jays at this point.

I think Keith Law is being contrarian a bit to the recently released John Sickels list which had Toronto slotted in at number one – the prospect evaluators can’t all agree right?

The top 100 prospect list is also released and expect the Jays to be all over this list, I would expect as many as six and perhaps seven Blue Jays to be on this list. 

An interesting quote from Keith Law during a recent “Klaw chat” about the common misconception that the Jays are “cheap”:

One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years, grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players.”

Inside The Mind Of A Baseball Stats Addict

Published February 8, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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If there is one beef I have with the sabermetric based writing community is the occasional feeling that perhaps the general reader is being alienated or made to feel stupid.  Advanced statistical analysis in baseball has come a long way and while there is no doubt it has changed the landscape of baseball debates it can leave some readers feeling despondent, frustrated and annoyed.

While I also tend to use the more advanced stats when doing an analysis piece I am also aware that you can never say many things in baseball with 100% certainty – with the exception that Delmon Young is an awful defensive player as some facts require little explanation.  But you will see that callous and smug tone from time to time that the argument or point being made is absolute.

When I started this new blog I wanted to do the best analysis possible and to do that in my opinion you have to use the best tools available.  For us baseball nerds, those ‘tools’ are the advanced stats provided by the good folks at Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference etc. 

Not using the absolute best data available is akin to Roy Halladay not using his cutter, just plain silly.  Although the new metrics/stats can be intimidating at first glance once you learn them you realize your baseball knowledge prior to knowing them was well, rudimentary.  If you care enough to be a well informed baseball follower why be an analog player in a digital world?

Continue reading ‘Inside The Mind Of A Baseball Stats Addict’

AL East Notes: Tuesday

Published February 7, 2012 AL East News Leave a Comment
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-A lot of Yoenis Cespedes talk today, doesn’t look like the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be big time players for the cuban outfielder, most insiders feel the Miami Marlins have the inside track.

- The Yankees inked Bill Hall to a minor league contract earlier today, creating some competition in Spring Training.

Hall, 32, posted a .211/.261/.314 line in 199 plate appearances for the Astros and Giants last year, playing mostly second base.  In more of a utility role for the 2010 Red Sox, Hall managed 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances.

- Although Hall was signed the Yankees continue to be focused on Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

- Also, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees are not offering more than $2MM for a DH-type and might not even want to spend more than $1MM.

- Orioles executive director of international recruiting Fred Ferreira will watch Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler in the Dominican Republic when he travels to watch Yoenis Cespedes play, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.

Monday AL East Rumours

Published February 6, 2012 AL East News Leave a Comment
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A slow news days for the great white north baseball scene so let’s take a look at what some of our main competitors in the AL East are up to, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumours.com:

-Baltimore Orioles dealt SP Jeremy Guthrie who was entering his contract year to the Colorado Rockies for pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, who can both be controlled for 2013.   Apparently multiple teams were interested in acquiring the veteran Guthrie to solidify the back end of their rotations.  They didn’t exactly get young prospects but VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette stated “We didn’t have any offers of young prospects for Jeremy,”.

-In Manny Ramirez news Duquette admitted he’s had exploratory talks with Manny Ramirez‘s agent and the Orioles have seen him work out, but added, “We are still considering the composition of this club, and some of the challenges of integrating a player like Manny into our ballclub and market.”

-The New York Yankees are oddly interested in free agent Raul Ibanez, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The ACES client is willing to take less money to play for the Yankees.

ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported earlier tonight that the Yankees could add a left-handed hitter such as Ibanez, Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui within a week. Yankees manager Joe Girardi said last week that he would like to see GM Brian Cashman add a bat before Opening Day.

Ibanez posted a .245/.289/.419 line with 20 home runs in 575 plate appearances as the Phillies’ everyday left fielder last year. The 39-year-old could provide the Yankees with an option at designated hitter or in the corner outfield positions.

Leveraging Brandon Morrow – An Odd Case

Published February 5, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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A lot has been said about Brandon Morrow during his relatively short MLB career but if there is one consensus or common theme it is this, Morrow has electric stuff but he has also suffered from some tough luck.  The success of the Blue Jays franchise would be greatly helped if Morrow’s stuff and excellent peripherals were also met with tangible results.

Morrow was essentially a two-pitch pitcher in 2011 relying heavily on his 94.3 MPH four-seam fastball and his 88.4 MPH slider as he basically abandoned his change-up that he used frequently in 2010.

Pitch

Count

Frequency

Mph

Fourseam (FA)

1922

64%

94.36

Slider (SL)

807

27%

88.41

Curveball (CU)

157

5%

82.03

Changeup (CH)

110

4%

86.53

 As you can see he basically has the pitch selection of a front-line closer to go along with his electric stuff.  Starting pitchers can definitely have success relying mainly on two pitches but it can be a bit tougher given the heavy platoon splits of the all fastball/slider combination.  Morrow was actually harder on left handed hitter last season (11.1 K/9, 3.06 FIP) than righties (8.9 K/9, 4.16 FIP) – another oddity to his 2011 season.

One reason for a drop in Morrow’s ERA was the success of his slider, or lessened success year over year.  In 2010 his slider was worth 3.02 runs per 100 pitches thrown but slipped in 2011 to only 0.48.  One of the biggest reasons I am high on Morrow going forward was a very strange split I noticed for Morrow’s 2011 season with relation to high leverage situations.

In only 11 “high leverage” innings pitched situations (i.e. runners on in tight game) Morrow was a complete mess.  Whether it was purely bad luck or there is something to his mindset in these situations, one would think or hope he could not post results like these again (18.00+ ERA!).  Check out the chart below:

Situation IP TBF R/ER FB% HR/FB xFIP
Low leverage 83.2 369 32/31 39 10.9% 3.28
High leverage 11 47 27/22 51 18.8% 3.76

 Small sample size could be one factor but looking at the total amount of runs given up in those few high leverage situations is astounding.  Also look at the difference in his fly ball rate and the amount of fly balls that turned into HRs, his HR/9 in those situations was an almost comical 2.45 however his xFIP (FIP with a normalized homerun rate) held steady at 3.76.

For his career Morrow’s FIP in low, medium and high leverage situations is 3.48, 4.05 and 4.58 respectively, certainly pointing towards a career trend?  If Morrow can either buckle down in the tougher situations or get a bit of luck in 2012 he could be primed for a breakout season, or at the very least an ERA (career 4.37) more in line with his FIP (career 3.85).

Included for your reference is the vertical/horizontal movement of his various pitches over his career, can you see any discernable differences or trends?

 

Back In The Day Post

Published February 4, 2012 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
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Wow, this takes me back…  You don’t quite hear this type of message in hip-hop today…

New Brooks Baseball Player Cards

Published February 4, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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Be warned, before you read any further about an amazing baseball discovery you must be forewarned that you are about to embark on a time wasting journey like no other.  Ok, still with me?  Good, it is worth it.  The boys at Brooks Baseball have officially introduced MLB player cards to us baseball nerds and if you haven’t checked them out yet, might as well start with ya boy Ricky Romero.

Here is a primer from Hardball Times for an in-depth look at exactly what they can offer.

How about Ricky Romero’s pitch profile for his entire career, you got it (slightly condensed):

Pitch

Ball

Call Str.

Swings

Whiffs

BIP

GB

LD

FB

(FA)

36.43%

18.77%

43.43%

5.93%

19.34%

8.76%

3.92%

5.53%
(SI)

41.13%

17.04%

40.94%

5.41%

21.82%

14.03%

3.46%

3.90%
 (SL)

43.30%

15.16%

40.88%

13.41%

16.04%

6.81%

3.52%

5.05%
(CU)

46.83%

14.90%

37.06%

14.25%

11.17%

6.98%

1.96%

1.96%
(CH)

36.01%

11.27%

52.15%

18.91%

18.39%

12.23%

3.01%

2.91%

What about velocity and pitch usage over his career – no problem:

Here is trajectories from the catchers point-of-view versus left hand batters:

 

Honestly, this doesn’t even scratch the surface of the data now readily available to you with a simple click of the mouse.

Alright, get out there, check out the full Ricky Romero player card, explore!

Rumours: Jays a Finalist for Manny Ramirez?

Published February 4, 2012 Jays Rumours Leave a Comment
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Hard to believe but yes another Manny Ramirez post as MLB trade rumours reports the Blue Jays are among a group of three teams being considered by Manny.  The Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are apparently the final three teams.

Analysis: Ramirez was last somewhat productive in (2010) when he played 90 games and slashed 298/409/460, .382 wOBA, 138 wRC+ – good for a 1.2 WAR.

Is it a good sign that we are competing with the A’s and O’s for a washed up 40 year old DH?  If this is to appease the fan base looking for any marquee free agent name than I say we pass, I think Edwin Encarnacion would out-hit Manny given the same amount of PAs at this stage of their careers.

Blue Jays 2012 ZIPS Projections – Pitchers

Published February 3, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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Yesterday we looked at the ZIPS projections for the Toronto Blue Jays hitters and the line-up looks to be pretty solid again if we can maintain solid health throughout the season.  There is even some potential upside if one or more of Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Kelly Johnson, Adam Lind or Colby Rasmus has a breakout season.

The Jays should hit but the question going into the 2012 season is the state of the starting rotation. 

Let’s see what ZIPS is projecting for the starting pitchers. 

ZIPS ERA IP H BB K HR/9 ERA+
R. Romero 3.72 210 190 79 171 23 117
B. Morrow 4.12 166 154 71 176 18 106
H. Alvarez 4.65 155 175 31 89 21 94
B. Cecil 5.00 174 189 59 122 28 87
D. McGowan 5.00 72 77 34 54 10 87
K. Drabek 5.80 147 170 87 88 21 75

 -          Yikes, that is ugly and a hefty dose of reality that the Jays are going to need some serious overachievement from their starting rotation to have any hope this season.

-          Overall, only two of our starters are expected to produce above a league average level – Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. 

-          I think Romero’s numbers look doable and even a good chance he can best them.  He won’t likely repeat his 2011 stats (2.92 ERA, 4.20 FIP) as he had some help with the BABIP but he did a great job of limiting hits when it mattered. 

-          A novel could be written about Brandon Morrow’s mediocre results versus his excellent peripherals.  He has been dubbed the Ricky Nolasco of the American League.  He has the potential to give the Jays a monster 200 IPs with a mid 3.00 ERA and strong strikeout numbers or what ZIPS projects. 

-          ZIPS does not think Henderson Alvarez will pitch quite as well as he did in his 60+ IP MLB debut last season but those would be sufficient numbers for a fifth starter, if we had two starters ahead of him we could depend on.

-          Brett Cecil is being punished for his awful 2011 season and ZIPS isn’t that high on him for this coming season.  I think he has a chance to beat those projections and can be a reliable number four starter.

-          If Cecil was being punished for a poor 2011 campaign Kyle Drabek is being put to sleep.  He was plain and simple terrible and given the ZIPS projection bias to more recent major league numbers they do not exactly paint a rosy picture for 2012.  He was a top rated prospect and has shown glimpses of success in small doses so there is some room for upside surprise here but it would be hard to project anything but a below league average pitcher until shown otherwise.

For those curious here are the projections for the topic of yesterday’s post and possible trade target, he would look great slotted in as the number two starter in Toronto:

ZIPS ERA IP H BB K HR ERA+
Matt Garza 3.52 194 176 64 181 19 116

 There is an outside chance one of the talented arms in our minor league system take the leap but given the likely strict innings cap put in place it would be hard to expect more than a 100 IPs or any meaningful season long contribution. 

I’d say the likeliest candidate to make the team out of spring training (or shortly after) would be a guy like Deck McGuire.  Though he isn’t the highest rated guy in the system he has solid stuff across the board and unlike most of the other highly touted young arms he was drafted out of college and thus probably closer to “big league” ready – at least in theory.

Obviously the Jays will need a break or two here with the absolute necessity for Morrow and Romero to stay completely healthy, Cecil to pitch as a league average lefty and breakout seasons for Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch, Henderson Alvarez or a yet to be determined minor league riser. 

Stranger things have happened but unless the Jays make a move for a veteran starter the rotation could be a real Achilles heel.  Luckily the Jays have seriously bolstered the bullpen with the addition of Sergio Santos (13.1 K/9!), LOOGY Darren Oliver and the return of Jason Frasor.  Add those three to Casey Janssen, Carlos Villaneuva and Shawn Camp and the bullpen should be a force.

Jays Keeping Tabs On Matt Garza’s Arbitration Hearing?

Published February 2, 2012 Jays Rumours 1 Comment
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During the height of the offseason trade rumour season the Toronto Blue Jays were linked to various starting pitching targets and with the Chicago Cubs‘ arbitration hearing with Matt Garza scheduled to take place tomorrow it is possible the Jays interest in the right hander could pick up.  Garza is asking for $12.5MM, while the Cubs countered with $7.95 MM, a fairly sizeable difference.

Before the two sides went to arbitration the Cubs signed him for one-year and $9.5MM and the trade talk surrounding Garza could once again pick up steam with the Jays still being a possible destination given the assets available in their rich farm system.  The possible package of prospects to acquire Matt Garza might make Alex Anthopoulos a bit reluctant to pull the trigger, but should he be?

I read an intriguing article at Grantland.com by Rany Jazayerli who states we are entering something of a “prospect bubble” where teams shouldn’t hesitate to deal the unproven commodities for a star player.  His premise is that these prospects are certainly valuable but in the current environment are essentially being overvalued by front offices around baseball.

He even used the example of the Jays dealing SP prospect Nestor Molina for RP stud Sergio Santos, saying it was a great move for the Jays considering they won’t really miss Molina what so ever but have filled a gaping hole with a pitcher who still possesses upside.

It’s worth a read and worth the thought for the Jays to be aggressive on the Garza trade front.  There are a few untouchables in the system but with the depth and quality the Jays have the pieces to get this deal done and still have a very respectable array of prospects.

Last season in 198 IPs, Garza posted a 3.32 era, 2.95 fip, 8.9 k/9, 3.1 k/bb and a 5.0 WAR.

Would it be wise for the Jays to be aggressive and acquire Matt Garza at this juncture?

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