Posts Tagged 'Jays ZIPS projections 2012'

Blue Jays 2012 ZIPS Projections – Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at the ZIPS projections for the Toronto Blue Jays hitters and the line-up looks to be pretty solid again if we can maintain solid health throughout the season.  There is even some potential upside if one or more of Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Kelly Johnson, Adam Lind or Colby Rasmus has a breakout season.

The Jays should hit but the question going into the 2012 season is the state of the starting rotation. 

Let’s see what ZIPS is projecting for the starting pitchers. 

ZIPS ERA IP H BB K HR/9 ERA+
R. Romero 3.72 210 190 79 171 23 117
B. Morrow 4.12 166 154 71 176 18 106
H. Alvarez 4.65 155 175 31 89 21 94
B. Cecil 5.00 174 189 59 122 28 87
D. McGowan 5.00 72 77 34 54 10 87
K. Drabek 5.80 147 170 87 88 21 75

 –          Yikes, that is ugly and a hefty dose of reality that the Jays are going to need some serious overachievement from their starting rotation to have any hope this season.

-          Overall, only two of our starters are expected to produce above a league average level – Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. 

-          I think Romero’s numbers look doable and even a good chance he can best them.  He won’t likely repeat his 2011 stats (2.92 ERA, 4.20 FIP) as he had some help with the BABIP but he did a great job of limiting hits when it mattered. 

-          A novel could be written about Brandon Morrow’s mediocre results versus his excellent peripherals.  He has been dubbed the Ricky Nolasco of the American League.  He has the potential to give the Jays a monster 200 IPs with a mid 3.00 ERA and strong strikeout numbers or what ZIPS projects. 

-          ZIPS does not think Henderson Alvarez will pitch quite as well as he did in his 60+ IP MLB debut last season but those would be sufficient numbers for a fifth starter, if we had two starters ahead of him we could depend on.

-          Brett Cecil is being punished for his awful 2011 season and ZIPS isn’t that high on him for this coming season.  I think he has a chance to beat those projections and can be a reliable number four starter.

-          If Cecil was being punished for a poor 2011 campaign Kyle Drabek is being put to sleep.  He was plain and simple terrible and given the ZIPS projection bias to more recent major league numbers they do not exactly paint a rosy picture for 2012.  He was a top rated prospect and has shown glimpses of success in small doses so there is some room for upside surprise here but it would be hard to project anything but a below league average pitcher until shown otherwise.

For those curious here are the projections for the topic of yesterday’s post and possible trade target, he would look great slotted in as the number two starter in Toronto:

ZIPS ERA IP H BB K HR ERA+
Matt Garza 3.52 194 176 64 181 19 116

 There is an outside chance one of the talented arms in our minor league system take the leap but given the likely strict innings cap put in place it would be hard to expect more than a 100 IPs or any meaningful season long contribution. 

I’d say the likeliest candidate to make the team out of spring training (or shortly after) would be a guy like Deck McGuire.  Though he isn’t the highest rated guy in the system he has solid stuff across the board and unlike most of the other highly touted young arms he was drafted out of college and thus probably closer to “big league” ready – at least in theory.

Obviously the Jays will need a break or two here with the absolute necessity for Morrow and Romero to stay completely healthy, Cecil to pitch as a league average lefty and breakout seasons for Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch, Henderson Alvarez or a yet to be determined minor league riser. 

Stranger things have happened but unless the Jays make a move for a veteran starter the rotation could be a real Achilles heel.  Luckily the Jays have seriously bolstered the bullpen with the addition of Sergio Santos (13.1 K/9!), LOOGY Darren Oliver and the return of Jason Frasor.  Add those three to Casey Janssen, Carlos Villaneuva and Shawn Camp and the bullpen should be a force.

Analyzing the Blue Jays 2012 ZIPS Projections

Of all of the stat projection systems I think it is safe to assume that the ZIPS projections are the most accurate and realistic.  Everybody loves Bill James but he is known to be very optimistic with his projections and offers almost a “perfect” world scenario for each player where ZIPS is the happy medium alternative.

The Toronto Blue Jays ZIPS projections were released on January 21st, 2012 and I thought we could take a look what our key players are projected to do this season. 

Here is a quick primer on how the ZIPS projection system works from Fangraphs:

The work of Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections uses weighted averages of four years of data (three if a player is very old or very young), regresses pitchers based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends. It’s an effective projection system, and is displayed at FanGraphs for off-season and in-season projections.

Let’s start with the Jays outfield:

ZIPS AB AVG OBP SLG HR BB K SB OPS+
J. Bautista 461 273 408 566 36 101 107 7 158
C. Rasmus 513 250 322 454 23 56 150 8 105
B. Francisco 297 253 326 418 10 29 60 7 98
E. Thames 603 250 313 428 20 45 159 7 96
T. Snider 477 247 304 407 15 37 133 12 89
R. Davis 394 259 299 365 4 20 69 35 77

 –          ZIPS does not think Jose Bautista will repeat his absolutely monster 2011 season and will see a board wide drop in all of his counting stats and rates.  An OPS+ of 158 is nothing to sneeze at and I think this is a reachable projection for Joey Bats.    

-          I think most fans would take the Colby Rasmus numbers projected if he can stay healthy and play league average defense.  A .250 batting average and 23 HRs would suffice and his slash line against righties will be higher than that, as he can struggle versus the southpaws.

-          ZIPS think Eric Thames will beat out Travis Snider for the starting gig in left field and provide slightly better numbers across the board.  There is upside to both of these players and if one of them has a breakout season the Jays line-up will be all the better for it. 

-          Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis will hit right around there career averages and provide professional at-bats.

Overall the outfield will provide some quality at-bats and supply a good dose of power to the Jays line-up.  Defensively it is going to be pretty weak if they start the season as expected with Thames-Rasmus-Bautista as none of these players are considered quality defenders.  Again, there is potential to surprise to the upside if one of Rasmus, Thames or Snider has a breakout season – which would put Toronto’s outfield on par with any team in baseball given the presence of the mighty Jose Bautista.

Let’s check out the infield:

ZIPS AB AVG OBP SLG HR BB K SB OPS+
 B. Lawrie 600 275 333 498 27 44 135 24 119
 E. Encarnacion 433 261 331 457 19 42 79 4 109
 A. Lind 556 264 315 466 26 40 120 2 106
 Y. Escobar 522 272 351 393 12 58 68 4 99
 K. Johnson 505 242 323 434 20 59 136 12 101
JP Arencibia 493 229 281 442 24 33 141 0 90

 –          My guess is many Jays fans feel this projection sells the super talented Lawrie a bit short and while I have no doubt he has the potential to surpass those numbers we must also be realistic and expect some struggles as pitchers begin to learn his weaknesses.  If he can stay healthy I think he can be slightly stronger than what ZIPS projects, but not by much, a .275 average and 27 HRs for a kid turning 22 is asking a ton.

-          Prince Fielder Encarnacion/Lind will split time at 1B/DH and should provide decent power production as a group.

-          Yunel Escobar should once again be a steady presence at the top of the order and as always brings a solid up-the-middle defensive game.

-          Kelly Johnson is interesting for me heading in 2012.  I feel there is some upside surprise potential with this player and he could be an on-base threat if he regains that superb patience he has shown in the past.

-          J.P. Arencibia will be the starting catcher for at least one more season until kid-wonder Travis D’Arnaud proves he can handle the rigours of a big league season.  “Aaron Cibia” provides some definite pop at the bottom of the order and there could be worse options – the pitching staff appreciates his efforts behind the plate, more than the scouts anyway.

Again, a pretty solid group and if Lind and Johnson can both rebound there is some upside to the infield.  There will be some growing pains with Brett Lawrie and this group will strikeout a ton but if they can continue to hit the ball hard and hit homeruns, they will be productive.

Let’s take a look at what ZIPS thinks the kids could do if given a full-time opportunity in the big leagues:

ZIPS AB AVG OBP SLG HR BB K SB OPS+
T. D’Arnaud 447 253 299 421 15 25 60 7 98
D. Cooper 574 251 311 376 11 50 97 0 83
A. Gose 612 230 300 374 17 51 203 53 79
A. Hechavarria 582 241 269 345 8 23 106 15 63

 It’s always a good idea to understand that for every Brett Lawrie, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols who come into the league swinging, countless other need time to get adjusted.  There is a possibility we see all four of the players in the big leagues at some point this season but in reality only D’Arnaud could make any meaningful contributions based on ZIPS projections.

As we can see the Anthony Gose contact issues are fully encapsulated by the ZIPS projections – over 203 strikeouts in 612 Abs!  We can also see that although his glove is fully mature, ZIPS feels Hechavarria’s bat has a ways to go.

I love the offseason for all of the movement, prospect rankings and projections that get you excited for the upcoming season.  I think it is safe to say the Blue Jays should have a pretty solid line-up once again after finishing 5th in baseball in runs/game last year.  It’s the other half of the inning that has most fans and pundits wondering and we will dive into the ZIPS pitching projections tomorrow.

What is your ideal line-up for the 2012 Blue Jays?  Post it below in the comments!


AL Eastbound On Twitter!

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