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On Brett Lawrie’s Slow Start, Comparables & Potential

Published May 17, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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With Brett Lawrie currently in the news for all the wrong reasons I thought it would be a good time to check in on his progress thus far as a major league ballplayer.  Expectations were massive coming into his first full season with the Blue Jays with some people projecting a .300 hitter with 30+ homeruns. 

Well we are not even 40 games into the major league season but needless to say Lawrie has been a bit of a disappointment with the stick so far.  In 38 games and 157 PAs Lawrie has slashed 281/325/384 with 3 homeruns and 6 stolen bases.

Not awful by any means but raise your hand if you expected better than a .313 wOBA and a .103 ISO.

 That has been the missing ingredient thus far for Brett, power.  Nobody realistically thought he could match his 2011 AAA/MLB (.308/.287 ISO) power output for an entire major league season but his mediocre .384 slugging percentage is a bit surprising.

Never known as a patient hitter hLawrie has seen his walk rate plummet from 9.4% in 2011 to only 4.5% in 2012 – a number that concerns me greatly.  There are a handful of batters who are super productive with that type of patience and Josh Hamilton’s don’t grow on trees.

Lawrie is also hitting a shit ton more worm burners this season (58% GB rate in 2012, only 38% in 2011) and his fly ball rate has expectedly dropped as well (24% FB rate in 2012, 44% in 2011).  His HR/FB is down also (10% in 2012, 17% in 2011).

He is chasing more balls thrown outside the strike zone (28% O-Swing in 2012, 22% in 2011) though he is making more contact overall this season.

Looking at his career stats he is officially at 81 games, a halfway point for a major league season.  Let’s have a look at his career numbers thus far to get a bigger sample size. 

Career PA AVG OBP SLG HR BB% K% wOBA ISO
B.Lawrie 328 287 350 483 12 7.0 18.0 .365 .196

 Double his counting stats and Brett Lawrie would finish 162 games with 656 PAs, 170 hits, 24 doubles, 10 triples, 24 home runs, 84 RBIs, 46 BB – 118 Ks and 26 stolen bases – and 8.4 WAR.

Obviously his stats are still weighted towards one of the hottest starts in major league history from 2011 and his current 2012 paces are much worse but projecting anyone as an 8+ win player is ridiculously impressive nonetheless.

UZR absolutely loves Brett Lawrie at third base, a sentence many people would have had a hard time believing given the lacklustre defensive scouting reports he received as a prospect.  For his career Lawrie’s UZR/150 is an out of this world 21.2!  UZR feels he is the best third basemen in the game defensively this season, by a wide margin.

The David Wright comparison gets thrown around a lot and I think they possess similar game changing skills and energy but Wright has also shown he is one of the most patient batters (11.3 BB%) in baseball even early in his career.

After searching around for similar statistics and overall profiles a hitter that closely resembled Brett Lawrie was Aramis Ramirez.  Ramirez is a 283/341/497 career hitter with a .357 wOBA, .214 ISO, 7.2 BB% and 13.8 K%.

Another fairly close resemblance would belong to Hanley Ramirez who has a career 303/377/503 slash line with a .382 wOBA, .200 ISO, 9.8 BB% and 16.3 K%.  Hanley was (and is) also very lively, athletic and can kill you with his speed like Lawrie can. 

If I was going to give my best comp for Brett Lawrie it would probably be between Aramis and Hanley Ramirez.  Now neither of those players can hold a candle to Lawrie defensively and we still don’t have enough data to know where Lawrie’s walk rate will fall but there are worse guys to be compared to.

You should never get excited for a crazy hot start or get too worried about a slow start.  Brett Lawrie is oozing with major league talent and the Blue Jays will enjoy his production for years to come.  If he continues to impress this much defensively the production required from his bat to remain an elite third basemen will be that much less.

If his bat continues to develop as expected we could be looking at a true superstar.

Are you guys still excited about his potential?

Flashback Friday: Was Juan Guzman Good?

Published May 4, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment

I was probably still sporting a bad teenage moustache when former Toronto Blue Jays hurler Juan Guzman hung up the cleats and retired his jheri curl.  My knowledge of baseball stats during his prime years was similar to my attention span at that point, seriously lacking.

Blue Jays nation has always had an affliction with Mr. Guzman and as I recall he was often referred to as a key member of the rotation when Roger Clemens and Pat Hentgen were anchoring it.

With that I wanted to have a look back and see if Juan Guzman was actually any good? 

Let’s take a look at his career numbers:

IP W-L ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP WAR
1483.1 91.79 4.08 4.09 7.54 4.05 1.86 0.9 1.37 27.8

 Those are respectable numbers for Guzman over a ten year career, averaging approximately 2.7 WAR per season.  Guzman did a solid job of keeping the ball in the yard and gave up 1360 hits in 1483.1 innings (he held a career .283 BABIP). 

The biggest weakness for Guzman was his control issues with a BB/9 over 4.0, walking 10.5% of the batters he faced.

His best season came in ’92, only his second year in the big leagues when he produced a career high 5.7 WAR in 28 regular season starts.

For the year he was 16-5 with a 2.64 ERA in 180.2 innings giving up 135 hits, 72 walks and 165 strikeouts.  His K/9 was 8.2, BB/9 was a respectable 3.6 and his HR/9 was 0.30 – giving him a very impressive 2.60 FIP.

As I peruse the Blue Jays current roster for a statistical comparable I look no further than Kyle Drabek who would do worse than match Guzman’s career numbers.  This season Drabek’s K/9 is currently 7.8 while his BB/9 sits at 4.50, both very similar to Guzman’s career line. 

There approach and pitch selection may differ and Guzman’s slider might have allowed him to miss more bats (and rack up strikeouts) than Kyle but the statistical similarities are definitely there early on.

Of course it is too early to tell what type of pitcher Mr. Drabek can become as he is only scratching the surface on what is hopefully the beginning of a solid career.

Juan Guzman was a solid mid-rotation contributor who always seemingly teased the fan base into thinking he could produce at a higher level, like 1992.

Analyzing Edwin Encarnacion’s Fast Start

Published May 3, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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To put it simply, Edwin Encarnacion is on fire. 

Having just clubbed a fifth homerun in the past six games Encarnacion is on a tear and for the season is slashing a ridiculous 320/376/680 with 9 homeruns, 24 RBIs and 4 stolen bases. 

His wOBA is at a Jose Bautista-esque .443 and despite his shoddy defense has already accumulated a 1.1 WAR.  His current wRC+ is an impressive 187 and his ISO is through the roof at .361. 

Encarnacion was always known as a solid hitter coming through the ranks and there was always the feeling he was only scratching the surface of his offensive potential. 

EE has started the 2012 MLB season with a vengeance, punishing poor unsuspecting pitchers in the process.  Has the man some affectionately call “E5” turned a corner in his career or is this hot start simply a result of some good fortune? 

I wanted to dig a little deeper into the numbers to get an idea if Edwin Encarnacion is for real.  The Blue Jays have a proven track record of developing and getting the absolute most out of talented but unproven hitters – see Bats, Joey.  

Not to compare the two sluggers, Edwin will never have the on-base skills that turned Bautista into one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.  But, have they potentially caught lightning in a bottle again?

Let’s look at some of his key stats in relation to career levels.

EE AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ ISO BB% K%
2012 .320 .376 .680 .443 187 .361 7.3 16.5
Career .262 .337 .461 .347 109 .199 8.7 17.2

 Obviously these are all career marks thus far and it is still relatively early into the season but a full month has passed and his stats are phenomenal.  His walk and strikeout rates are right in line with career levels and he has always been a slugger but this season he has taken that power to another level.

Here is his batted ball profile:

EE BABIP LD% GB% FB% HR/FB
2012 .306 12.3 33.3 54.3 20.5
Career .283 18.6 36.6 44.8 12.2

 Not surprisingly with any power surge his HR/FB ratio is well above his career level and a 20% mark is the type of number Jose Bautista has been putting up over the past few seasons during his revival.  His BABIP isn’t outlandish though a touch high given his line drive rate.  It is also probably artificially lower given how many fly balls leave the yard entirely.

Let’s now look at his plate discipline numbers:

EE Swing% Contact O-Swing O-Contact Z-Swing Z-Contact F-Strike SwStrk
2012 45.2 79.8 26.7 64.3 63.1 86.1 52.3 8.8
Career 47.0 81.1 25.9 62.0 68.8 88.4 58.6 8.6

 Again, other than pitchers trying to avoid throwing a first pitch strike less this season most of these numbers are right in line with his career averages. 

Defensively he has been terrible and let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that is a fixable skill set.  UZR rates him very poorly at both first and third base and this is just a trade off the Jays will have to live with as long as he is on the team.

So what gives, why such an amazing offensive start?

If I had to hang my hat on a possible reason for his early season success it would definitely start with Encarnacion’s improvement versus the slider.  Historically it has been a pitch that has given him fits and has been a crutch for him over his entire career (-14.1 runs vs. slider).

This season he actually has a positive run value versus the slider which is a career first.  In fact early on there isn’t a pitch he hasn’t handled well, including the cutter.  Combine an inflated HR/FB with an improvement versus his long time nemesis (aka the slider) and maybe he really has turned a corner. 

Surely some of his numbers will regress as the season plays out and it is possible he has had favourable pitching matchups to start the season (pitchers without solid sliders/cutters) but with Jose Bautista still struggling to get his timing back the Blue Jays will continue to lean heavily on his powerful bat.

Drew Hutchison Shaky In MLB Debut

Published April 21, 2012 Stats Analysis 2 Comments
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Not surprisingly Drew Hutchison appeared a little nervous at times during his major league debut.  The book on Hutch has always started with his impeccable control and his minor league resume can fully support that claim.  However he struggled with his command mightily tonight and paid the price when he left a few hittable pitches over the heart of the plate.

Given the way he aggressively attacks the strike zone Hutchison will always be a guy who gives up his fair share of hits considering the hitting talent at the major league level.  Tonight against the Kansas City Royals Hutchison went 5.1 innings, giving up eight hits, five earned runs with three walks and four strikeouts. 

Mechanically he is fairly simple, though not without faults and he really seemed a bit out of sync as the game wore on when considering his declining fastball velocity.  Hutchison isn’t blessed with a huge frame typical in the modern day hurler and perhaps he simply tired down the stretch – a frequently discussed negative attribute. 

As always let’s take a look at what Hutchison throws with the velocity and movement of each pitch type.  Brooks Baseball coded basically four pitches during his start versus Kansas City – four/two seam fastball, changeup and slider.

Type Count Avg Speed Max Speed H-Break V-Break Strikes
4Seam FB 42 92.3 94.3 -7.97 9.09 23 / 54.7%
2Seam FB 34 91.3 93.6 -10.41 5.61 17 / 50.0%
Change 10 85.7 86.9 -10.35 3.50 7 / 70.0%
Slider 10 85.0 86.7 -0.36 1.03 7 / 70.0%

 Now this was his first game so some of the pitch coding might be slightly off but as you can see his pitches do contain solid movement.  His four seam fastball has more vertical break than a lot of two seam fastballs, check out my piece on Kyle Drabek for a comparison to his stuff.

Perhaps a result of an adrenaline dump or just faulty mechanics but his velocity really wavered after the 70+ pitch mark, look at the chart below:

The big blows came on two big homeruns to lefties Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer on similar pitches (changeups) that both caught too much of the plate. 

Here is the at-bat against Alex Gordon:

Now let’s check out Eric Hosmer’s at-bat in the sixth inning:

 

Gordon cranked an 86.2 MPH changeup for a first inning homerun while Eric Hosmer belted a sixth inning jack on a 85.5 MPH change.  Both pitches were left in the sweet spot for left handed batters and were properly deposited – a lesson learned for young Hutch I am sure.

If this was an audition for a rotation spot going forward the results were mixed.  He is a strike thrower with solid movement but is his stuff so dynamic he can consistently miss enough major league bats?  I would expect the Blue Jays to give him at least one  more opportunity to show he is big league ready.  His next start would come Thursday, April 26 versus the Baltimore Orioles.

What’s Up With Jose Bautista? **UPDATED April 26, 2012

Published April 17, 2012 Stats Analysis 6 Comments
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Before we dig a little deeper into Jose Bautista’s slow start we have to mention that it just that, a slow start, nothing more and nothing less.  Players go through these types of slump many times throughout a season but when a player does so at the beginning of a season the ugly numbers become magnified. 

Another caveat is the extremely small sample size we are dealing with, obviously.

But I thought we could take a look and see if there is anything that sticks out as a possible culprit for what seems like an unusually long Joey Bats slump.  After posting back to back incredible seasons (.422 & .441 wOBA) the expectations of another magical season were high for Bautista.  In only 42 plate appearances this season Bautista is slashing 203/354/359 to go along with three homeruns and a .323 wOBA.

What’s going on?  Is this the result of Brett Lawrie intentionally sabotaging him by punching his head too hard in the dugout?  I’d have to say yes actually (if I was crazy!). 

Seriously, is there anything wrong with Bautista?

Continue reading ‘What’s Up With Jose Bautista? **UPDATED April 26, 2012′

Kyle Drabek Looking Like An Elite Starting Pitcher

Published April 15, 2012 Regular Season Game Recaps , Stats Analysis 9 Comments
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Toronto Blue Jays moribund offense decided two losses in a row was enough as the Jays stomped the Baltimore Orioles by a score of 9-2.  The club received big hits from Brett Lawrie (first home run to go with 3 RBIs), Jeff Mathis (2-3, big 2-out RBI) and Edwin Encarnacion (2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI).  But the biggest star for me was once again starting pitcher Kyle Drabek.

Drabek gave the Blue Jays 7.1 IPs, scattering six hits, allowing only one earned run, walking one and striking out six.  A solid 103-pitch outing that inspired even more confidence from Blue Jays fans that perhaps Kyle Drabek has indeed turned a corner.  If the young hurler can continue developing and provide the Jays consistent innings, it would be a huge boon.

Let’s have a look at how Kyle Drabek attacked the Baltimore Orioles hitters.

Type Count Avg Speed Max Speed H-Break V-Break Strikes
2Seam FB 40 93.7 95.2 -8.04 4.86 27 / 67.5%
4Seam FB 34 93.4 95.3 -3.64 7.19 21 / 61.7
Changeup 11 84.9 86.8 -6.80 1.19 6 / 54.5
Slider 9 80.6 81.7 4.39 -4.44 5 / 55.5
Curve 5 80.4 81.6 4.06 -4.31 3 / 60.0
Cutter 4 90.9 91.9 0.21 4.09 1 / 25.0

 Drabek has a dynamic arm with great stuff.  Both his two and four seam fastball have great velocity and movement and he was attacking the strike zone with both.  He is similar to Henderson Alvarez in the sense they can both generate a lot of groundballs (12 today versus the Orioles) but Drabek also shows the ability to miss bats and rack up strikeouts as well.

Drabek probably has a higher ceiling than Alvarez given the better off-speed pitches at his disposal.  He has not been afraid to throw them in any count, at least early in the 2012 season.  Drabek was mixing his pitches well and kept the Orioles off balance most of the game with some of them taking feeble hacks at pitches that would move a foot outside the zone. 

For those curious I had a look at Roy Halladay’s two seam fastball movement from his last start (H-Break -9.15, V-Break 5.12)  to show the type of movement Drabek has.  Drabek also throws his about 5 MPH harder, not to compare the two of course but just showing the serious talent that potentially lies within Drabek’s right arm.

Throwing a 95-mph fastball with movement is one thing, adding the changeup, slider, cutter and curveball at various counts is another.  Kyle Drabek could be a breakout starting pitcher if he remains diligent and focused on his recently altered mechanics.  The changes have allowed him to drive through his pitches with a more balanced lower half and the results thus far have been impressive.

A look at how he mixed in his pitches by inning:

If he can continue to couple decent control with his natural movement and velocity we may be seeing the progression of a premiere pitcher in the American League.  As a key piece that saw Roy Halladay traded to the Philadelphia Phillies Blue Jays fans can only hope.

What do you think?

Henderson Alvarez Dominates Red Sox With Power Arsenal

Published April 10, 2012 Stats Analysis 1 Comment
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Henderson Alvarez was very sharp versus the Boston Red Sox during his first start of the 2012 season for the Toronto Blue Jays.  He gave the Blue Jays exactly what they want from a fourth starter (or any member actually) which is six solid innings. 

His final line was impressive going 6 IPs, 4 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk and 2 strikeouts.

Even more impressive was his continued mastery of keeping the ball on the ground inducing 13 groundball outs with only 5 out coming via the air.  Let’s look at how he attacked the Red Sox hitters with the 95 pitches he used:

Pitch Type                   Count Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Strikes / %
FF (Four seam) 32 93.01 96.5 -6.16 -3.08 21 / 65.6
FT (Two seam) 29 93.24 95.9 -9.07 -4.35 18 / 62.0
SL (Slider) 19 85.45 89.4 2.77 -3.36 11 / 57.8
CH (Changeup) 13 84.62 86.9 -4.10 -6.08 8 / 61.5
FC (Cutter) 2 94.75 95.4 -1.53 0.30 1 / 50.0

*information provided by Brooks Baseball and may be inaccurate

Alvarez throws predominantly fastballs, whether it is a sinker, cutter or a four seamer.  He also throws extremely hard and pounds the zone effectively with nearly all of his pitches.  Look at the drop on his two-seam fastball (sinker) and how much is breaks through the zone in on right handed batters.  He is a true power arm who has shown impeccable control throughout his minor league career.

Let’s see how his velocity held up throughout his start:

How he handles left handed batters will also be a key given the normal heavy platoon splits of a sinker/slider type of pitcher. 

Here is a look at how he attacked the left handed Red Sox batters April 10, 2012:

A typical gameplan with sliders inside and sinkers, fastballs and change-ups away. 

The continued improvement and usage of his changeup could propel Alvarez from a league average pitcher to an elite number two or three starter.  Watching him operate and you can’t help but love the confidence he exudes on the mound, and it’s not hard to see why when you analyze his arsenal of power offerings.

So far his power arm has been more adept at producing weak contact and inducing groundball outs and if he could ever start missing more bats and increase his strikeout rates he could be an ace.

Kyle Drabek Looks Strong Versus Yankees

Published March 27, 2012 Stats Analysis 6 Comments
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With Dustin McGowan on the mend (plantar fasciitis in the right foot) even more eyes were on the Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kyle Drabek tonight.  Not only are people within the Jays organization still hoping he can live up to his potential but maybe he can earn an outright spot in the rotation immediately.  Kyle Drabek helped his case with a strong spring training effort versus the New York Yankees and basically their full starting lineup.

Kyle Drabek faced 20 batters and gave the Jays 5 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits, walking 2 and striking out 5 to improve his spring ERA to 3.14.  Not only did he strike out a batter an inning but he also kept the ball on the ground inducing 5 ground ball outs (and only 2 flyouts).  The talented youngster would be a major boon to the questionable back end of the rotation if he were able to put it all together on a consistent basis.

Last season was rough for Drabek - 78.2 IPs, 87 hits, 55 BB, 51 K’s, 6.06 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 1.81 WHIP.  But don’t forget one Roy Halladay set a record for the worst ERA (10.64) for any starting pitcher with more than 60 IPs and he turned out pretty good.  Not to say that Kyle Drabek is remotely close to the talent level of a Roy Halladay but it goes to show failure can quickly turn to success with the right combination of talent, effort and a little good fortune. 

With that I thought we would revisit Kyle Drabek’s highly anticipated (and highly successful) MLB debut last year on April 2nd, 2011 versus the Minnesota Twins.  The big right hander is talented and has been highly touted by scouts since being drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Let’s take a look at what I wrote one year ago along with some Pitch F/X data from his stellar outing versus the Twins:

Continue reading ‘Kyle Drabek Looks Strong Versus Yankees’

Appreciating Ricky Romero

Published March 24, 2012 Stats Analysis 4 Comments
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Just wanted to update a former piece from my old blog on Blue Jays Ricky Romero with updated 2011 stats…

Former Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi has taken his share of criticism since departing from the team but the franchise does owe him a bit of gratitude for leaving behind two of the best players on the roster, Jose Bautista and newly minted “boss” starter Ricky Romero.  I wanted to focus on the latter today considering you must have been on Mars for the past 18 months if you aren’t familiar with the exploits of one Jose Bautista.

Ricardo Romero was born November 6th, 1984 in East Los Angeles, California and was drafted 6th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2005 MLB amateur draft.  The 2005 draft year in MLB is akin to the 2003 NBA draft that produced Lebron James and Dwayne Wade, among a few other stars.  Taken ahead of Romero that year was Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement (ouch, the Detroit Pistons of this draft) Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun.

It doesn’t stop there check some of the names taken after Mr. Romero: Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Chris Volstad, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza,  Blue Jays OF Colby Rasmus, Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie.  Ok, forget comparing it to the 2003 NBA draft, or any draft, that is a who’s who of young baseball talent and even a few franchise players.

Considering his home park and division Ricky Romero has been one of the best left handed starters in baseball the past two seasons.  Brandon Morrow has the best stuff on the staff but Ricky Romero is our best pitcher.  Let’s do a quick comparison against another top lefty who most assume is a Cy Young contender annually, let’s see if you can guess his identity based on current stats.

2011 ERA xFIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 BAA GB% WAR
Romero 2.92 3.64 7.1 3.2 2.23 1.04 .214 54.7 2.9
Player B 3.47 3.62 8.5 3.5 2.43 0.94 .233 50.6 3.7

Pretty even across the board although it is clear that Player B is more of a strikeout pitcher while we all know Ricky Romero likes to induce groundball outs when he can.  Player B is Boston Red Sox lefty Jon Lester who is having another very solid season in another tough ball park and tough AL East.  Lester is often among a handful of candidates when discussing best pitcher in the game while it is very rare that Romero will get the same type of praise.

Market and city has a lot to do with the difference in perceived value but Romero is 11 months younger than Lester and performing at a very similar clip over the past two seasons.  Lester was quite a bit better last year overall (5.6 WAR) but Romero held his own throwing 200+ IPs for the first time in his career (4.0 WAR).

His intense demeanour during his starts is a testament to a desire to win and his light hearted banter with teammates on off days make him an ideal leader and role model in the clubhouse for some of the future Blue Jays arms that are being stockpiled in the minor leagues.  Maybe Tyler Beede was too intimidated to sign with the Jays after one glimpse of Romero’s scowl walking off the mound?

Maybe Blue Jays fans were spoiled all those years watching the legend that is Roy Halladay apply his craft that we don’t appreciate the fact Ricky Romero is developing into a true number one starter.

Fangraphs Ranks Blue Jays Rotation #19

Published March 9, 2012 Stats Analysis Leave a Comment
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Fangraphs continues its positional power rankings with the big one, the starting rotation.

This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.

Player TM IP BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WAR
Ricky Romero TOR 210.0 3.4 7.3 1.0 3.5
Brandon Morrow TOR 170.0 3.8 9.6 1.0 3.5
Henderson Alvarez TOR 150.0 1.8 5.2 1.2 2.0
Brett Cecil TOR 150.0 3.1 6.3 1.5 1.0
Kyle Drabek TOR 100.0 5.3 5.4 1.3 (0.5)
Carlos Villanueva TOR 75.0 3.1 6.8 1.2 1.0
Jesse Litsch TOR 50.0 3.0 6.2 1.4 0.5
Dustin McGowan TOR 50.0 4.2 6.7 1.2 0.5

With Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez, ZIPS sees the makings of a strong rotation going forward, but the lack of quality at the back-end looks to be a real problem this year. That said, there is some talent there, and it’s not completely out of the question that a guy like Drabek could find the form that made him a real prospect a few years ago. If the Blue Jays want to contend for the second wild card, though, they’d do well to get a solid veteran who would raise the floor of what they could expect from their #5 starter, and keep an implosion from the young kids from ruining their season.

The Jays ranked #19 on the list, ahead of only the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. 

The top five rotations were 5) Cleveland Indians, 4) Detroit Tigers, 3) Tampa Bay Rays, 2) Philadelphia Phillies and 1) Los Angeles Angels.

Rounding out the AL East the Boston Red Sox ranked #12 and New York Yankees #7.

That wrapped up a very interesting series.

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