Archive for the 'Opinion' Category

Should The Blue Jays Trade Colby Rasmus?

Colby Rasmus has put together a nice little hot streak over the past week or so even as the Blue Jays have played some of their worst baseball of the season.  Rasmus was expected to bounce back from a very auspicious start to his Jays career (133 ABs, 173/201/316) and give the team a solid middle to bottom of the order threat from the left side.

Well, sometimes the most well intentioned plans can go awry and Rasmus has been fairly awful to start the new campaign.  Not to be a downer but even with his recent hot surge his May stats are not only below average (240/318/400 in 24 games) but his slugging percentage is actually down a few ticks compared to April.

Over his past seven games Colby has gone 10 for 30 with seven extra-base hits including a homerun in each of his past two games.  His season slash line is now 227/298/411 to go along with 9 doubles and 5 homeruns.  Considering his position and fairly solid defense he isn’t the worst player in the game but if the Jays are serious about taking a run at a playoff spot I have a couple recommendations.

First his trade value is probably at its absolute lowest and a panic sell is not something Alex Anthopoulos would be inclined to do (based on track record) but the Jays have a guy in Triple-A named Anthony Gose who is starting to really hold his own offensively.  Is anyone confident that Gose couldn’t perform at the same level offensively (if not slightly better) than Rasmus right now?

If the offensive production is even close to similar at this stage than Gose should be in the major leagues right now.  His centre field defense has the potential to be the game’s best and his dynamic speed game could make him a weapon.  Gose is not a perfect hitter by any means but his improving Triple-A numbers lead me to believe he could hit at least as well as Rasmus.

Yes he is in a hyper offensive environment but he has still performed well as one of the youngest players in the league.  Currently slashing 285/366/415 with a solid 10.1 BB% and a reduced K% of 22.4 (26.2 in 2011) good for a .358 wOBA.  Gose has nine doubles, three triples and three homeruns to go along with 18 stolen bases. 

Scouting reports are glowing when it comes to his centre field defense, of course.  Considering both Rasmus and Gose would be hitting out of the eight or nine hole it would appear the move could be a wash or slightly positive (depending on Gose’s contact ability at the MLB level). 

But if the Blue Jays could find a trade partner for Colby Rasmus and add a much needed veteran starting pitcher than the overall move would definitely be net positive.  Again it is hard to gauge exactly what the Blue Jays think of Rasmus but if they weren’t slightly disappointed, I’d be disappointed in them.

Rasmus wouldn’t land the team a top arm at this stage (on his own) but if a team has a longer term need in centre field and still has some belief in him then I could see a potential fit.  Maybe the Jays could land a Joe Blanton or Gavin Floyd type which would be a welcome sight for a rotation in need of an arm that could push the currently overmatched Drew Hutchison back to the minor leagues (for now).

If this is too knee jerk than at the very least let Colby Rasmus grind it out against right handed pitching but please enough with the “will he or won’t he be able to hit lefties” business, it is clear, he can’t.  In 1177 ABs (versus righties) Rasmus has slashed 260/329/452 while in 395 ABs (versus lefties) he has slashed 213/292/359.  The data supports sitting him against lefties if winning is the ultimate goal this season.

A quality I have long admired about current Toronto Raptors GM is his ability to admit a mistake a cut bait when given the opportunity (Jermaine O’Neal, Hedo Turkuglu for example) and I hope Mr. Anthopoulos isn’t overly attached to the 26-year old outfielder if things continue on their current path production wise.

What do you guys think?  Continue to be patient in the hopes that Colby turns it around?  Call up Anthony Gose and attempt to deal Rasmus?

 

A Quick Blurb On Vlad Guerrero

I really wasn’t planning on doing a full post on Vladimir Guerrero as I didn’t anticipate he would make that necessary.  Given that everyone is speculating Adam Lind’s demotion means fast tracking Vladdy to the Blue Jays I thought I would add my two cents.

My initial thought was why?  Does anyone think Vladdy is actually a worthy designated hitter?  He was awful last season, you don’t need to go further than his awful 0.0 WAR and 95 wRC+.  Yeah, that’s right a guy who was only used for his bat was actually 5% worse than league average. 

Basically he shouldn’t have even been in the big leagues – last year.  His slash line was 290/317/416 in a whopping 590 PAs, he had 13 HRs, a pathetic 2.9 BB%, .126 ISO, .318 woBA and again a 0.0 WAR.  The Orioles are sure struggling without him right?

They can’t get better production from almost anyone else in their system?  Keep Yan Gomes, call up David Cooper, hell bring back Brad Fullmer, any of them would probably out produce a well past his prime Vlad Guerrero.  ZIPS projects 284/316/429, which I feel is generous after seeing his hacks down in the minor leagues today (via television).

I don’t see how Vladimir Guerrero is better than any of our current DH options, because he isn’t.

Still Plenty Of Room To Grow For Brett Lawrie

Just in case you forgot how young Blue Jays third basemen Brett Lawrie really is we were given a stark reminder the guy still has a ways to go in terms of maturing as a ballplayer. 

Lawrie embarrassed not only himself but the entire team with a childish tirade after being called out a back-to-back awful strike calls and now faces a possible double digit game suspension.

Passion is one thing but complete and utter lack of composure is another.  He is still a junior ranking member of the major leagues with no seniority or sway over the umpires and this type of thing can earmark you for biased officiating against you your entire career.  The incident was ugly and won’t soon be forgotten, especially by major league umpires.

Yes it was unlucky the batting helmet struck the umpire however he also threw it down a mere foot or two away from him in the first place.  Take your lumps rookie and act like a man, there is a time and place to take a stand against a perceived slight, your first full season in the league is not that time. 

Favourable calls are reserved for only the established elite, think Roy Halladay.  Making an ass of yourself and missing out on at least five games while your team is desperately trying to remain relevant in the toughest division in sports isn’t a good look.

Speaking of good looks, have one now at the Pitch F/X data from that last at-bat to see that while he was out of line to act the way he did his argument couldn’t have been more valid.

 

We love the passion, fire and talent that clearly resides in Lawrie but a little restraint, professionalism and class go a lot farther in the end. 

Brett Lawrie received a four game suspension from major league baseball, first word is he plans to appeal this decision.

Can The Blue Jays Win The AL East?

Is the AL East suddenly winnable?

If there has been a common refrain over the past decade (or longer) out of Blue Jays nation it would have to be one word – unfair.  That’s how being a member of the AL East has felt seemingly forever given the presence of the two headed financial powerhouses in New York and Boston.

It was an honest beef with the clout those two teams had, often times the salaries from only their infields alone surpassing most other teams entire payroll.  Whatever problem either of these teams would face they could always throw the mighty dollar at it and seemingly make it disappear.

To make matters worse over the past five years there has been another franchise starting to take flight on a bare bones payroll structure.  It would be hard to argue the Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been the most well run franchise in baseball over a five or six year period.

Endless supply of quality starting pitchers, athletically gifted position players at a few key positions (all at either affordable or bargain bottom prices) and a penchant for turning reclamation projects into superstars (Ben Zobrist anyone?).

The Toronto Blue Jays were always the also-rans to the ‘big two’ of Boston and New York, good for a noble third place effort year in and year out.  Well even that changed recently with the emergence of the Rays.

However the year is now 2012 and the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are suddenly looking well, rather ordinary and dare I say it, beatable.  Of the two the Yankees look more likely to shake off a relatively slow start as any time you can roll out a line-up that deep you are never out of a game.

But the reality is no team is impervious to the aging curve and it looks like both the Sox and Yanks have gotten a bit long in the tooth.  Whether it is injury (Youkilis, Rivera) or just underperformance (Beckett, Hughes) the two kingpins look vulnerable.

Let’s look at the standings as of May 14, 2012.

AL East W-L GB    RF   RA   Home Away Vs East P10 Pythag W-L
Baltimore 22-13 4.7 4.2 11-8 11-5 12-6 6-4 19-16
Tampa Bay 21-14 1.0 4.5 4.3 13-3 8-11 8-8 4-6 18-17
New York 19-15 4.0 4.9 4.4 11-8 8-7 8-6 6-4 19-15
Toronto 19-16 5.5 4.7 4.0 8-7 11-9 4-8 5-5 20-15
Boston 15-19 6.5 5.5 5.5 7-11 8-8 4-8 5-5 17-17

 Based strictly on runs for/runs against (Pythag. theorem) the Toronto Blue Jays are actually the top team in the American League east.  Both the Orioles and Rays have benefited from a bit of fortune in terms of their overall win/loss records.

The Blue Jays haven’t done themselves any favours in terms of head-to-head AL East matchups thus far and that has to be something they improve upon immediately.  Given the slow offensive starts for Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar and the shaky ninth inning duo of Sergio Santos and Francisco Cordero (Jays have seven blown saves thus far) the team has performed admirably.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have serious rotation question marks and those aren’t going away this season.  The Baltimore Orioles are definitely a team on the rise but I don’t think they can match the Toronto Blue Jays bat for bat or arm for arm. 

Finally that leaves the Tampa Bay Rays who are looking like the class of the division.  They can send a stud to the mound at all five spots in the rotation and they haven’t missed a beat since losing Evan Longoria.  If they can get timely hits they are built to win this season and I feel they are the team to beat right now in the East.

But don’t count out the Blue Jays if the bats start to match the outright amazing performance of the pitching staff.  It still feels like this team hasn’t played that great yet either and definitely not their best. 

This could be an interesting season.

The Irrational Fans Guide To Fixing Blue Jays

There is a fine line between a passionate fan and one who is panic driven.  Following the poor effort in a three game sweep at the hands of AL East foe Baltimore the latter had strong opinions on how to fix what ails the Toronto Blue Jays.

1) Eric Thames just has to go and Travis Snider must be called up

I’ll admit it, that terrible play on the Matt Wieters homerun has shined a giant, bright light on an undeniable fact – he is a lousy fielder.  This talk was silenced slightly when Thames hit a monster jack for the only Jays run in game one of the series and overall his hitting hasn’t been horrendous.  Travis Snider also recently came down with a wrist injury so this one isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.

2) Adam Lind needs to be released and David Cooper should be his temporary replacement.

This one might have legs as the Jays really don’t have much invested in Lind going forward and if you read the daily prospect updates on this site you know David Cooper is mashing in Triple-A Las Vegas.  However you have to give a veteran like Lind a bit more rope to turn his season around though patience will be thin if he can’t turn it around quickly.

3) JP Arencibia can’t hit, call up Travis D’Arnaud.

Catcher is the toughest position on the diamond and every manager with any savvy will require a catcher to focus on defence first – especially handling a pitching staff.  With the Blue Jays running out the youngest starting group in the majors it would almost be a disservice to their development if a rookie learning the ropes were forced into this role.

Couple that with the fact Aaron Cibia is coming off a 20+ homerun season and the starting gig is his for the foreseeable future.  Don’t be surprised if he hits right around .200-.220 all season with the occasional homerun – that is just the type of hitter he is.  Travis D’Arnaud is scuffling in Triple-A and will definitely need some more seasoning but I would expect him to be called up in September or possibly earlier if injury strikes one of Arencibia or Jeff Mathis.

4) Yunel Escobar is slumping so let’s see what Adeiny Hechavarria can do.

Escobar has not looked impressive at the top of the order and has even let his slumping bat affect his normally rock solid glove.  As I wrote yesterday he appears a bit more aloof than normal and noticeably sulked the past two nights when things did not go as planned.  We have the veteran presence in the dugout to help him past this and hopefully Joey Bats and Omar Vizquel handle this one internally.

Hechavarria is having a great start to the season in Triple-A but he still has some glaring weaknesses that could be exploited by big league pitchers, namely his plate discipline and patience.  Yunel Escobar is a proven commodity off to a slow start, once he stops trying to yank literally every pitch and starts to use the whole field he should produce.

5) Move Edwin Encarnacion up in the order, no down, no permanently in the cleanup spot, at first base, no designated hitter.

Look, Edwin Encarnacion is a fine player but after a hot start is coming back down to earth, close to what he actually is.  EE is a .270-.280 hitter capable of hitting 20-25 homeruns, adding depth to a major league line-up while batting anywhere from 5-7.  He is an awful defensive player who should be the DH nearly fulltime or spell Adam Lind occasionally. 

This season was never thought to be a year in which the Blue Jays were serious contenders but they came out of the gate in spring training and served noticed to the league – they are getting close.  The pitching staff has held up better than most had predicted with every starting pitcher lasting five innings to start the year.

With the New York Yankees struggling to put out five major league starters, the Boston Red Sox dealing with slow starts and injury problems suddenly the AL East beast looks a little easier.  If the Blue Jays can continue pitching well enough to stay in ballgames and the Jays key hitters (Bautista, Lind, Johnson, Escobar) begin to hit at their career levels this thing could get interesting.

Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote today:

There’s been a buzz about this team since the Blue Jays pulled into exotic Dunedin, Fla. And despite their messy sweeperoo this week in Baltimore, this remains a very intriguing team whose arrow is definitely pointing up.

“I like their club,” one exec said. “They’ve vastly improved that club. They’re going in the right direction. I’m not saying they’re going to win the division. But they’re making a lot of headway. And they’ve got a ton of good young players in the minor leagues.”

The Blue Jays run so many young works-in-progress out there, they’re probably the toughest team on this list to evaluate. Their rotation features three pitchers younger than 25 (Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison) who have made a total of 37 big league starts. No one in their lineup is older than 31. And they’re hunting diligently for another masher and another top-of-the-rotation arm. So they could easily get better as the season rampages along.

 Their biggest current worry, however, is that their new closer, Sergio Santos, just headed for the disabled list (inflamed shoulder) — and his replacement, Francisco Cordero, “really isn’t a closer anymore,” one scout said.

But in a division in which the Yankees and Red Sox both have issues, the Blue Jays are a team nobody should ignore. The verdict from one scout: “I think they’re for REAL. I might have gotten a little ahead of myself on how good their young players are. But I think they’ll be a fun team to watch. I don’t know if it’s all going to kick in the way I thought in spring training. But they should go by the Red Sox.”

So what is my advice?  Stay the course, it’s a long season and baseball is a game that will always even things out.  Rumours are floating that perhaps Alex Anthopoulos is interested in adding a veteran rotation piece and an accomplished slugger.  Maybe he too sees a division suddenly vulnerable, potentially winnable.

Checking In On Travis Snider

In about one week I will be releasing a full minor league and prospect monthly recap to get Blue Jays fans caught up on the latest in the world of prospects.  Stay tuned to what will become a regular monthly feature here at AL Eastbound & Down, an in-depth look at all of our minor league teams and top prospects monthly performances.

Today I wanted to take a quick glance at a guy who doesn’t make the daily prospect report because he doesn’t technically qualify as a “prospect” anymore, Travis Snider.  Snider had a solid spring in the hotly contested left field battle with Eric Thames but ultimately the job was earned by Thames, who also had a very good camp.

“Lunchbox” was sent to the land of buffet’s and let’s be honest there are worse Triple-A affiliates to go to then Las Vegas but I am sure Snider was obviously very disappointed with the demotion.  He certainly hasn’t let his disappointment carry into his early season performance as Snider as crushed the ball so far.

2012 AB  AVG  OBP  SLG  H   2B   HR   BB    K  
T.Snider 70 .414 .481 .729 29 10 4 9 10

 The Pacific Coast league is a notorious hitter’s paradise and the home field for the Las Vegas 51s definitely inflates offense so take any numbers from this league with a grain of salt.  Saying that it is great to see such solid numbers and this has to do wonders for a kid whose confidence is not always high.

Although it is early Snider is absolutely crushing right handed pitching – slashing 433/485/800 (all four homeruns have come against righties).  He is also hitting just as well away from Las Vegas, which is another positive sign.

Travis Snider was at one time rated our top prospect according to Baseball America who labelled him as a middle of the order presence.  He obviously hasn’t come close to impressing at the major league level and there are several prospects beginning to pass him on the depth chart but he is still only 24 years old with a top notch prospect pedigree.

If and when he gets an opportunity to contribute to the big club he needs to take full advantage and show he is not just a 4-A talent.

Blue Jays Have Fast Start In Spite of Cold Bats

The Toronto Blue Jays have to be happy with the early results (4 wins, 2 losses) in the very early stages of the 2012 MLB season.  They took two of three from both the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox and could have easily swept both of the series with a bit of luck from the reliever gods.  Either way, they won a couple tough fought extra inning games and gave a solid effort from start to finish. 

They have also received solid pitching performances from their starters:

Pitcher           Opponent Result IP ER  BB   HR
R.Romero  @Cleveland W 7-4 5 3 4 3 4 1
B.Morrow   @Cleveland W 7-4 7 1 0 3 3 1
J.Carreno     @Cleveland L 4-3 6 6 4 4 3 2
H.Alvarez Boston L 4-2 6 4 1 1 2 1
K.Drabek Boston W 7-3 5.1 3 1 3 4 0
R.Romero Boston W 3-1 8.1 3 1 2 5 0

 Looking at the above chart and it is easy to see why the Jays are off to a fast start.  The starting rotation has been oft-discussed as the weak link heading into this season and although it has only been six total starts it does look a bit better than advertised.  Joel Carreno has been sent back to AAA for now with Aaron Laffey taking his place and the backend will be a patchwork for most of the season.

I fully expect the young and promising Drew Hutchison to make a few big league starts in the next month or so as the Jays look to fill innings.

What I find even more encouraging when considering the Jays fast start is when you look at the slow starts from two guys expected to be our biggest producers.  Brett Lawrie is hitting 240/259/240 and is off to a pretty terrible start overall.  Jose Bautista has been just as cold with a slash line of 174/310/304 and only one homerun. 

When they both start to produce at their projected levels it will give a boost to an offensive attack currently being led by the surprising Kelly Johnson, the only Blue Jays batter with an OPS above .800! 

If the bats start to heat up and they continue to get quality efforts from the starting pitchers this team could surprise the American League.

Joel Carreno Makes First Start Of Season

New Blue Jays starting pitcher Joel Carreno has gone from a relative unknown to an overnight celebrity among Jays fans.   People are lighting up the search engines with his name in hopes of learning something, anything about the young right hander.  Count me among the curious so let’s have a quick look at what Carreno brings with a few musings after his first major league start today.

Carreno wasn’t exactly pumping in the strikes today versus the Indians as he really struggled with his control most of the day.  He battled through 6 innings and threw 97 pitches (57 for strikes) while allowing six hits and four earned runs, walking four batters and striking out three.

Carreno has a very simple, straight forward delivery and utilizes a three-quarter arm slot to produce solid movement on his three pitches.  Carreno’s delivery is reminiscent of a relief pitcher and it will be interesting to see how he fares two and three times through an MLB lineup. 

His delivery isn’t deceptive and hitters can definitely see the ball well out of his hand but he has had some success as a starter throughout his minor league career.  He throws a low 90s fastball with some sink as well as a curveball around 80 mph which he relies upon heavily.  He leaned heavily on the first two offerings last season and threw a change-up only 5% of the time last season.

Carreno will obviously have to show the change-up more frequently to keep hitters a little more honest.  A common misconception is a pitcher must throw three pitches to have success but there are many examples to the contrary.

Carreno is now 25-year olds and is getting too old for the levels he has pitched in recently.  In 2011 he pitched 134.2 IPs in AA and was highly successful with a 10.1 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.88 FIP.  The walks were definitely a concern but that was the first season he had a walk rate higher than 8.7%.  He was also impressive in a short cameo in the Blue Jays bullpen last season.

The Jays had an unexpected boost from Henderson Alvarez last season and while the situation is similar I don’t think Carreno has anywhere near the fastball (or upside) of Alvarez.  There is no doubt in my mind his future lies in the bullpen for the Jays given his size, delivery and overall repertoire.  However the Blue Jays have a need right now given Brett Cecil’s failure to impress during spring training. 

So why did the Jays select him as the early season starting pitcher replacement for Brett Cecil?  Carreno is an easy pick to fill in and give the Jays innings as he isn’t a highly touted prospect and the Jays won’t fret about his development at his age.  If he falters expect Drew Hutchison or Deck McGuire to possibly get a chance to give the Jays some much needed innings from the rotation.

Yankees GM: “Jays Are Going to Win And Win For a While”

Joel Sherman had an interesting piece at the New York Post today and it is similiar to something I have already touched upon, the Toronto Blue Jays are close to becoming a powerhouse.  Sherman gets quotes from long time New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman and even 3B Alex Rodriguez who both lavish praise upon what the Blue Jays are building.

“This is not a long-term project anymore,” Cashman said. “They are knocking on the door. It is undeniable that they are going to win and win for a while. They are reaping the benefits of great scouting, patience and doing things right.”

Or as Alex Rodriguez said, “They aren’t a secret anymore.”

Toronto is viewed as having a top-three farm system with one scout calling the Jays’ 2011 Double-A team the best he had ever seen. The Jays have formulated “a lineup without an easy out,” Mark Teixeira said.

Here are a few more highlites from the article:

Imagine what the Rays would look like with the finances to keep all of their best players.

Now stop imagining. Because it is happening. Unfortunately for the Rays, it is not in Tampa Bay. Heck, it is not even in this country.

The Blue Jays, methodically, have assembled a talent base at both the major and minor league levels that has them poised to turn the AL East into a Fearsome Foursome. That unsettles no one more than what had been the Terrific Trio of New York, Boston and Tampa. As Yankees GM Brian Cashman said, “It is not good for anyone going up against them.”

In a way, this is about well-kept secrets. For example, do you know that the Blue Jays have averaged 83 wins over the last six years, finishing above .500 in five of them? Doesn’t sound like much, except remember they have amassed those totals playing 18 games annually against each of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. That is one-third of an entire schedule.

You know how hard it is to even win 81 games like the Jays did last year when three teams in your division win at least 90? Or win 85 when three others win at least 89 as occurred in 2010? It is like a mathematical trick or — more aptly — symbolic of just how good Toronto has become.

Here is another thing you might not know: Toronto’s owner, Rogers Communication, just might be the majors’ richest ownership. Thus the money is there to take the payroll to places the Rays could never dream about; keep the homegrown elites that ultimately flee Tampa.

New MLB Playoff Format And The Jays

It appears that major league baseball will be implementing the controversial change to the playoff system as early as 2012 if Bud Selig’s recent comments are any indication. 

From the Chicago Tribune:

“I really believe we’ll have the (extra) wild card for this year,” Selig said Friday at SoxFest. “Clubs really want it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an issue that the clubs want more than to have the extra wild card.”

“We’re working on dates right now,” Selig said. “It looks to me like we’ll have it, because I’ve told everybody we have to have it. It will be exciting. A one-game playoff and it will start the playoffs off in a very exciting manner.”

The disgruntled Jays fans that still haven’t recovered from giving the bad bodied DH Prince Fielder a key to the city of Toronto also seem to forget this little nugget.  The biggest complaint over the past decade (and longer) has been the unfair competitive landscape in the AL East, and adding an additional playoff team is bound to help the Jays in the coming years.

Continue reading ‘New MLB Playoff Format And The Jays’

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