Archive for the 'Opinion' Category

JA Happ’s Head Injury

Providentially, he’s okay. He went to the Trop yesterday to visit with his teammates and has spoken to the media about his situation.

Let’s relegate the Blue Jays’ rotation issues to the back burner: frankly, they’re not that important right now. They’ll become important, but we’ll address it at a more appropriate time. There’s a lot of talk and virtual ink being spilled about the incident. I just read an article over at Fangraphs.com: it’s one of many. I am unsure what to think about some of the issues raised, notably the MLB rules regarding injured players and the prospective adoption of protective headgear for pitchers.

Regarding the first issue, I think a rule modification is in order. Simply put, play doesn’t stop until there’s a natural break that the umpire can use. Then the umpire calls time, and the injured player is tended to by the appropriate staff. This was thrown into relief in the Happ incident where Brandon Jennings kept running until the ball came back to the infield. A line drive off the pitcher resulted in a triple.

I’m in favour of a rule modification because it is often the case that the sooner medical help is given, the better the injured players’ prognosis will be. In the back of my mind, the image is of the Buffalo Sabres trainer running across the ice to staunch the flow of blood from Clint Malarchuk’s throat.

I’m against the second issue: protective headwear is unnecessary, in my opinion. I am attempting to walk the razor’s edge here, so allow me to explain what I mean. On the on hand, there have been several similar incidents recently (Doug Fister, Brandon McCarthy, JA Happ, etc.), and they are likely to continue. These events aren’t common by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s a once-per-year or three-times-in-five-years kind of frequency to them. I was horrified by what I saw in Tampa, and that is unlikely to change in future occurrences. Familiarity DOES NOT breed contempt: every time it happens it’s scary and unsettling.

On the other hand, career-ending injuries in these situations are rare and there’s only been one MLB player die as a result of sustaining an injury during a game (Ray Chapman, 1920). Ray Chapman played when: some pitchers still threw spitters; clean balls weren’t kept in play; batting helmets were a safety innovation that wouldn’t be adopted for another 30+ years; it was late afternoon/twilight (stadium lighting was also a later innovation); and Carl Mays was a unique pitcher—he threw Quisenberry style, but he threw very hard. These factors make it surprising that there weren’t more fatalities or career-ending injuries.

Another incident, this one in the minor leagues, occurred in 2007. Mike Coolbaugh, formerly a Blue Jays’ draft pick, was coaching first base when he was struck in the neck by a line drive. The impact was so great and the injury was so severe that Coolbaugh only lived for about an hour after being struck. It is because of this incident that MLB adopted the rule that base coaches wear protective helmets in late 2007. It was enforced at the start of the 2008 MLB season.

I don’t want anyone to die from injuries sustained in any sport. However, the extreme rarity of fatal injuries occurring in baseball suggests that protective headgear for pitchers (a kevlar bump cap, if you will) may be an overreaction.

I also wonder about the relevance of a ‘kevlar kap’, since the overwhelming majority of injuries—serious and otherwise—happen below cap level. It’s unrealistic to think, for instance, that JA Happ could have lowered his head and let the line drive carom off a kevlar kap and thus prevent a head injury. Human instinct is to raise the hands, not lower the head.

There’s also the difficult issue of the severity of the injuries being sustained. McCarthy’s injury was very serious, but he was out of hospital in six days. Happ left the hospital after his condition had been upgraded from ‘fair’ to ‘good’. Are these valid considerations?

What do you think?

Wes Kepstro

Is J.P. Arencibia a Changed Hitter In 2013?

Has J.P. Arencibia turned the corner?

First I have to say that I love Twitter (@ALEastbound) and Blue Jays nation definitely has a presence on the social media platform (#lovethisteam).  So far this season it would seem that the Jays are rolling out Mike Piazza to the plate with the way people have been talking up J.P. Arencibia.  Even I got caught up in it for a while as he has been stroking homerun after homerun.

Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler seem to think that Blue Jays hitting coach Chad Mattola will be a big difference maker for JPA this season as he had his biggest minor league season when Mattola was the coach.  The common perception is that Aaron Cibia is a brand new hitter and more complete player early in the season.

So with that I wanted to see if that was indeed the case.

Let’s compare his career numbers with his early season numbers and take a closer look.

JPA AVG  OBP  SLG  wOBA  BB%  K% FB% HR/FB BABIP
Career Stats        .224 .275 .445 .309 5.9% 28.7% 48.9% 16.2% .263
2013 Season .254 .266 .603 .366 1.6% 35.9% 60.0% 25.0% .294

Thus far JPA is slashing 254/266/603 with 6 HRs and 4 doubles.  The power is of course welcomed with our weakened lineup but after the homeruns things quickly turn sour.  He has taken exactly one walk all season – which explains his ridiculously poor 1.6 BB% and .266 OBP.  He is also striking out at an alarming pace, even for his standard at 35.9%.

More fly balls (60.0%) and an unsustainable HR/FB (25.0%) account for his early season power surge.  Even his BABIP is above his career levels and has helped his AVG/OBP numbers.  However you simply cannot have such a hack-tastic approach at the plate and expect amazing results unless you are a contact freak (think Pedroia, Dustin).  Looking at his contact rates for the season he is actually making a career low in overall contact (69.7% compared to career 73.5%) and in-zone contact (78.8% compared to career 81.4%).

Small sample size caveats apply (duh) but I don’t see any reason to believe that JPA is a new hitter.  If anything he is an even more aggressive, less effective version of his old self but with the same terrible defense.  It appears a lot of the Blue Jays hitters have an even more all-or-nothing approach at the plate (Bautista, Edwin, Rasmus, Arencibia) under Chad Mattola.

I hate that this has come off as a bash piece as Arencibia has been one of our more productive players (in terms of power) but when John Gibbons pencils him in the number three spot of the line-up it is disconcerting.  I realize injuries have reduced the Blue Jays options but in a perfect world JPA needs to be batting no higher than seventh or eighth.

If JPA doesn’t drastically alter his approach at the plate he could be in for an extremely rough patch at the plate when his FB%, BABIP and HR/FB rate inevitably starts to normalize.

OTHER LINKS:

The Potential Legend of RA Dickey – Can Dickey take his place amongst Clark, Gilmour, Joe Carter?

Brett Lawrie – Blue Jays New Second Basemen?

Coming to a theatre near you Brett Lawrie starting second basemen for your Toronto Blue Jays?

Currently on a minor league rehab assignment for a rib cage strain our incumbent third basemen Brett Lawrie is taking his reps at second base with the intent of joining the big league club at the position.  Alex Anthopoulos stated that if Lawrie looks good at second then when he returns to the bigs Jose Bautista will remain at third base and Lawrie will take over at the keystone corner.

While we still aren’t sure what type of batter Brett Lawrie will be with more than 1400 careers innings at third base in the major league one thing we are fairly certain – Lawrie plays a mean hot corner.  A career 9.4 UZR in 1452.1 innings at third base is impressive especially considering he essentially began his time at third base position at the major league level.

While I love the idea of Brett Lawrie playing second base for the good of the team (and lineup) I doubt this will be a longer term fix.  Coming through the ranks not many scouts questioned the offensive abilities of Lawrie but sticking at second base was seemingly a pipe dream.

Here are a few observations and scouting reports when Lawrie was still in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system:

According to John Manuel of Baseball America, many scouts compare him to Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla.  Convinced he would hit as a pro, one scout said “real thing to remember is that Lawrie’s best position is in the batter’s box—a lot like Uggla.”  Some scouts also see him as a Jeff Kent type without the defense.

Lawrie spent last season in AA at only 19 years of age.  By midseason he led the Southern League in hits (102), extra-base hits (39), triples (11) and total bases (164).  Lawrie’s biggest weakness is his defense and scouts have noted that his throwing arm has regressed; projecting him as an outfielder should he prove to be liability in the infield.  He led all second basemen in errors, with one badly misplayed ball ending up breaking his nose.

Keith Law said in 2010:

Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I’ve seen him over stride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He’s an intense, aggressive, “one-speed” player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a faster path to the majors there. There’s still a realistic chance he’ll have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected value.

I don’t think he’ll ever be above-average defensively at second, and he’s pretty maxed-out physically, but his bat looks like it’s going to play just about anywhere in the big leagues, and his offensive downside is very limited.

Another downside could be the already fragile Brett Lawrie would be moving to a much more physically demanding position.  Second basemen have to range much further to both sides, regularly laying out to make plays and being on the receiving end of hard slides at the bag on double-play opportunities.

This has to be one concern for the Blue Jays brass, and perhaps a major one.  Can this team really deal with another injury considering its already fragile psyche (and fan base)?  Lawrie has proven himself to be very capable (if not spectacular) fielding third basemen but is there any guarantee he can even play second effectively at the big league level?

The Blue Jays need his bat to be productive above almost anything else.  I worry that his offensive development could be jeopardized if he struggles with the transition to a brand new (and more demanding) position.  Again this might only be a temporary solution, and a sensible one considering our injury situation but trying Brett Lawrie at second base is far from a sure thing.

However given his impressive athleticism and tireless work ethic if anybody could make a concerted effort at this transition it is probably the crazy Canadian Brett Lawrie.  It’s obviously worth a shot at this point.

 

A Little Perspective – Blue Jays Season Only 4.3% Complete

Ok I will admit it, this season has started unbelievably bad for the new look and revamped Toronto Blue Jays.  I have wanted to throw my television through the window on numerous occasions and much worse when I took in the game debacle in person on Sunday.  The Blue Jays can’t hit, the starters are getting shelled and the defence has looked horrendous.

In short, this team has been bad.

There is no other way to say it and sometimes you just have to call it how it is.  But we have to keep in mind that this isn’t the NFL where a 2-5 start is actually reason for concern, in baseball land the Blue Jays have played 4.3% of the scheduled games.

There wouldn’t be anything said about Usain Bolt at the 4.3 metre mark or Tiger Woods at hole #3 in the first round of the Masters.  There would be no beer spilled if Dale Earnhardt Jr. wasn’t leading after lap #21 of the Daytona 500 and Montreal wouldn’t riot if Georges St. Pierre was slightly behind at the 1:07 mark of the first round.

In other words the sun will come out tomorrow, in baseball there is always another day.  That’s not to say that some of the concerns or worries aren’t valid.  This hasn’t looked very much like a baseball team ready to take on the world.

I have written about the question marks surrounding the depth of the offensive attack, specifically the five thru nine hitters as the line-up is currently comprised.  This isn’t being negative but the fact remains that there are definite red flags when considering the expected production from Adam Lind, Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio, Henry Blanco, Mark DeRosa and even Colby Rasmus.

This is a line-up that simply cannot afford injuries (Bautista, Lawrie) or many extended slumps (Encarnacion) to any of the key pieces if the team expects to remain competitive all season.   Jose Reyes has done his part, and then some, but the big boppers behind him have all been struggling pretty mightily up to this point.

Brett Lawrie will be a welcome addition but he hasn’t aggressively swung a bat for weeks and my guess is he won’t join the club until May.  Lawrie’s return will be welcomed as the Jays need his glove and presence in the line-up to push everyone else to their rightful place and role on the team.

Perhaps a bigger concern is the complete inability for any of the Blue Jays starting pitchers to piece together any consistent innings in a row.  RA Dickey’s struggles have been well documented and there are some who are questioning whether he is in fact ‘ace material’.

He has a solid track record so some of the worries are unfounded but this is a different division, ballpark and more offensive league.  The Blue Jays gave up two of the better young players in their farm system and while it has only been two starts (and various spring appearances) I would be lying if I wasn’t also a touch nervous about what type of pitcher he can be.

Josh Johnson was definitely not consistent with his command in his Blue Jays regular season debut (1.83 WHIP) while Mark Buerhle is a pitch to contact (i.e. lacks strikeout ability) soft tossing lefty who is playing in front of a defence that lacks any confidence whatsoever.

Possibly due to familiarity I have less concerns overall with Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ but again both have had either injury or performance concerns of their own in the past.

What is most frustrating is the manner in which we are losing.  The Blue Jays have been getting beat handily in quite a few of the games and some of the scores versus Cleveland (and even today versus Detroit) haven’t captured just how out of the game we were.

Look there is a lot of time to right the ship and every team in every sport in every league will have a stretch where they win two games and lose five.  Those panicking after a mere 4.3% of the games are a tad on the ridiculous side.  However I can see why there are some genuine concerns being voiced by even the more reasonable and rationale fans.

They aren’t hitting (nor should they be expected to with some of the line-ups they have rolled out), the knuckleball hasn’t been knuckling and the defence has been laughable.  This has probably been the absolute worst-case scenario in terms of a start but the good news is baseball statistics always tend to regress to the mean.

The Blue Jays might have been slightly overrated heading into the season but there is no way Edwin Encarnacion hits .075 or R.A. Dickey has a 99.99 ERA – in other words there is only one way to go from here.

Stick around, this is just getting started.  There is still 95.7% of the season to be played – a pretty sizeable portion no?

Sunday, Bloody Sunday

Cy Young awards and World Series titles represent the pinnacle of a pitcher’s active career. If enough of these coalesce over the course of a career, then the ultimate post-career reward awaits: a summons to Cooperstown to be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Percentage-wise, very few pitchers achieve all of these awards and honours.

When a pitcher is voted in to the Hall, they receive a plaque that is hung on the wall, various pieces of equipment are requested so as to serve as exhibits, videos are looped and shown, and stories are told interminably.

Within a surprisingly short period of time, those stories become the stuff of legend. Then something interesting occurs: that pitcher becomes unbeatable. The losses sustained during their careers are an illusion, the by-product of poorly-trained statisticians and a blatant attempt to besmirch the reputation of the honouree. Clearly it’s a case of character assassination. But I digress…

Today was a tough day to be a defending Cy Young award winner and a defending World Series champion. Today RA Dickey, David Price, and Matt Cain were merely mortal. Immortality must be earned through the blood, sweat and tears of hard work and, yes, sometimes abject humiliation is part of the process. Consider these lines:

IP H R ER BB SO ERA
Cain, SFG 3.2 7 9 9 2 2 8.38
Price, TBR 5.0 10 8 8 3 3 8.18
Dickey, TOR 4.2 10 8 7 2 5 8.44
Totals 13.1 27 25 24 7 10 16.20

The ERA column tells two stories: the first story is the pitcher’s cumulative ERA in their first two starts; the second (the box in the bottom right-hand corner) is their cumulative ERA for Bloody Sunday. The Giants were beaten by St. Louis 14-3, while Tampa Bay and Toronto lost by identical 13-0 scores to Cleveland and Boston, respectively.

Are we seeing the real thing? It’s doubtful in almost every respect: STL, CLE, and BOS aren’t that good, and Cain, Price, and Dickey aren’t that bad.

Early season games aren’t a very reliable indicator of how a full season will unfold. There’s far too much statistical and anecdotal evidence from the history of baseball (and any other professional sport, for that matter), to arrive at any firm conclusions at this early stage of the 2013 season. Baseball is notoriously difficult to predict from an early result, simply because the regular season is 162 games and takes 6 months to complete.

How about soft conclusions, can we arrive at any soft conclusions? Probably, but if you can arrive at them with any accuracy and regularity then there are career choices you can make that will be very lucrative for you. Some reasons for Bloody Sunday could include new pitching coaches, new leagues, a bad bowl of chili, arm pain, a touch of the flu, fatigue, new environment, a not-so-unusual letdown after a career year, a bad game, and a myriad of other possibilities.

The likelihood is that all three pitchers will go on from here to have solid seasons. That’s partly what makes them good pitchers: they have the ability to level off the inevitable peaks and valleys of 162 games worth of work. They’re emotional, but they don’t allow their emotions to rule the day. Every pitcher has a ‘Bloody Sunday’. How they handle them is what’s important.

Wes Kepstro

Defensive Woes? Bonifacio, Izturis, DeRosa, and Lawrie

As mentioned previously, Emilio Bonifacio had a record-tying 3 errors in game 1 against the Red Sox, two of which occurred in the same inning. Those errors cost the Jays a run. Mark Buehrle has already mentioned that Bonifacio is a good OF, but hasn’t seen him play much at 2B. In his first three games, Maicer Izturis has made two errors and stumbled on another sharply-hit-but-relatively-routine ground ball, costing him a play at the plate. The out was recorded at 1B, but the go-ahead run scored. Mark DeRosa, in his first start of the season, made a throwing error. That’s 6 errors in 4 games by 3 guys getting more PT (“playing time”..shout out to Dick Vitale!) than expected. So, what gives? Brett Lawrie is absent because he’s injured. That’s what gives.

Brett Lawrie is a darn good third baseman. The sample size isn’t huge, but the numbers are pretty impressive. His UZR was 4.8 in his 2011 debut and his RngR was 5.1, but the sample size (380.1 innings at 3B) didn’t leave us comfortable enough to draw any firm conclusions. Fair enough, says Brett. His 2012 defensive effort virtually duplicated his brief ’11 call-up, with a 4.5 UZR and a 4.5 RngR. The sample size was a satisfying 1072 innings at 3B. Now we have a good foundation for our expectations. It isn’t Moustakas or Beltre territory, but those a pretty good numbers at the hot corner. But there’s an oblique injury preventing him from playing so far in the much-ballyhooed, highly-anticipated 2013 season.

Previously, especially during the injury-plagued 2012 season, the Jays’ bench has been a concern. After Alex Anthopoulos dealt Roy Halladay to the Phillies, the cupboard had a couple cans of kidney beans and some creamed corn. The bench has been limited to one-dimensional bit players like John MacDonald (a Toronto icon) and Mike McCoy (an icon? Not so much…). Guys like Rajai Davis, an excellent 4th OF, were actually starting. The bench started as a concern but when the injuries hit, it became a glaring weakness.

Enter Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio, and Mark DeRosa, in that order. In 3 moves, the Jays seemingly addressed their bench-depth problems. They all have considerable experience as starters and as bench/role players, they’re all talented, and they bring intriguing skills with them.

So, why are they playing so poorly? Let’s start with Maicer. Maicer plays well at 2B and 3B, but he’s a better 2B than 3B. In 1965.2 innings at 2B his RngR is 3.0, his ErrR is 4.7, and his UZR is 12.2. His corresponding numbers at 3B are 11.3, -6.3, and 4.2 in 2288.2 innings. He takes his second baseman’s range and arm to 3B when he plays there, allowing him to cover a lot of ground at the hot corner, but he’s error-prone. Interestingly, that’s exactly what we’re seeing in the first few games of the 2013 season.

Emilio Bonifacio is a different kettle of fish. Mark Buerhle said he hadn’t seen Bonifacio at 2B very much but he played 122.2 innings at 2B in an injury-plagued 2012, which was the second-highest total of his career. Buerhle and Bonifacio were teammates in MIA last season, but Bonifacio only played 64 games, so we should probably file Buehrle’s observations under ‘Nice, but less relevant. Thanks anyways’. In 625 career innings at 2B, Bonifacio is an average-to-below-average performer (1.4 RngR, -4.6 ErrR, -2.8 UZR). His great speed allows him to cover the territory—which we’ve seen: he made a play against the Tribe to keep a ground ball on the infield with a runner in scoring position—but he’s highly error-prone and his UZR is substandard. That said, he’s even worse at 3B (1000.1 innings, -1.7 RngR, -3.6 ErrR, -5.4 UZR) and SS (750.2 innings, -3.6 RngR, -3.0 ErrR, -6.3 UZR). Emilio Bonifacio is a speed merchant whose talents are better suited for the OF, particularly the corner OF positions.

Mark DeRosa, the last of our 3 bench players, is 38, was injured last season, and was signed mainly as a veteran with good experience (WS ring in ’10 with the SFG) who could mentor young, impressionable, and highly-emotional Brett Lawrie. We won’t go into much depth about what he offers defensively, except to say that he’s played all over the IF and both corner OF spots over the last few years. But he hasn’t played 200 innings at any position since 2009. Offensively, since ’10 DeRosa has posted wRC+ totals of 54, 91, and 57 and has 11 extra base hits in 121 games. He’s paid to be the Jays 25th player and an extra coach.

This is the sort of difficulty created when Lawrie’s injured: manager John Gibbons needs to play the game of comparative advantage. Maicer’s a better 2B than 3B, but he’s a better 3B than Emilio. Emilio is a better OF than IF, but the OF is set for now. DeRosa is a better mentor and coach, but Lind is replaceable and Maicer and Emilio are struggling defensively. The result? Decent offense, with a couple of homers, but shoddy defense: 3 guys, 4 games, 6 errors.

A key to this season could be Mark DeRosa’s impact on Brett Lawrie. If he can help Lawrie to channel his incredible drive, forget making every play like it’s his last (it’s baseball, not football), and to help him to mature (no helmet tossing), Lawrie could be an all star. More importantly, however, Brett might learn to play 140-150 games every season.

Wes Kepstro

More Joey Bats, Less Joey Yaps

As the undisputed leader of the Toronto Blue Jays Jose Bautista needs to take the team in a completely different direction this season.  The fans appreciate the skills and passion Joey Bats brings to the field each night and some players are just more demonstrative on the field than others but this constant bickering with umpires needs to end, immediately.

These umpires are human beings who are sensitive to the harsh criticism and will undoubtedly harbor resentment to players they feel ‘show them up’.  It isn’t a sensible long term strategy to upset the most influential officials in all of sports – the men who literally determine the strike zone.

Here is a look at the at-bat Bautista took issue with versus Justin Masterson in the fifth inning when he was caught looking at a called third strike.

bautista-1

As you can plainly see the seventh pitch in the at-bat was borderline but according to pitch f/x caught enough of the plate to be a reasonable call.  In closing it is time to turn over a new leaf, a more respectful one, it will only benefit the team in the long run.

Get fired up, throw a tantrum, in the clubhouse.

A Word About Salaries in Major League Baseball

Mike Trout is a good baseball player. Mike Trout is the reigning Rookie of the Year. Mike Trout finished second in the AL MVP vote in 2012. Mike Trout is 20 years old and has accumulated one year and 70 days worth of MLB service time. Mike Trout will make $510,000 this season to play baseball. And his agent, Craig Landis, thinks it’s “unfair” (his word, not mine), and that Arte Moreno short-changed the Angels’ wunderkind. Maybe Arte did; maybe Arte didn’t.

In tough economic times, as we’ve endured for several years, there isn’t much sympathy for Mike Trout: $510,000 is a lot of bananas, more bananas than I make. But that’s apples and oranges, isn’t it? No, comparing Mike Trout to Henry Blanco is apples and oranges. When we compare Mike Trout’s situation to our own situation, it’s like comparing apples to moon rocks or Bigfoot sightings. The two ideas are so far apart that it’s meaningless to compare them. The only similarity is the subject itself: pay rate. When you and I can generate revenue at that level, then our collective noses can get out of joint.

Is Mike Trout underpaid? Comparisons to other sports are difficult because of different economic structures, as well as different Collective Bargaining Agreements (CBA). Comparisons within baseball but across generations is difficult due to inflation. That rules out the obvious Fred Lynn comparison. So what about the last, say, 5 years or so? Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did some helpful work there, so I’ll borrow his idea:

  • Giancarlo Stanton made $480,000 last year and will make $537,000 in ’13;
  • Clayton Kershaw made $440,000 in his 2nd year and $500,000 in his 3rd year;
  • Jason Heyward made $496,000 in his 2nd year and $565,000 for his 3rd year.

All in all, I’d say that Mike Trout will be compensated ‘fairly’ within the MLB salary structure when you factor in age, experience, and the CBA.

Pro sports specifically (and the entertainment industry in general) have always had pay scales that are out of synch with us ‘regular Joes’. When the infamous eight Chicago White Sox players agreed to throw the Series because Charlie Comiskey was the cheapest owner around, Shoeless Joe made $8,000 and Eddie Cicotte made $10,000. Someone working in a medical or health services occupation, which I’m sure we’ll agree is important, could look forward to making about $752 per year. A tradesman would make $1.08 per hour. And this was in the boom period after World War I.

In 1930, Babe Ruth was well-established as the best player the game had ever seen and his salary reflected his greatness. Colonel Jacob Ruppert, notoriously stingy, paid Ruth $70,000 to catch and hit, and to ‘be’ Babe Ruth. The average income in America in 1930 during the Great Depression was $1388/year and a pound of butter cost 46 cents. If the only work you could find was in the next county, a bicycle cost $32.

A handful of years later, the Babe’s salary rose to $80,000. Once, a reporter demanded to know how Babe Ruth could justify making more than the President of the United States of America, arguably the most powerful person on the planet. Quoth the Babe, “I had a better year”. Apples and moon rocks. If he stays healthy and shows that 2012 was no fluke, Mike Trout will be paid handsomely by Major League Baseball standards which, of course, will be astronomical by our standards.

Wes Kepstro

Intriguingly Shallow Thoughts about a Crucial Non-Issue

I was reading something the other day, and a question recurred. The question isn’t original to me (few things are original to me, actually), and this isn’t the first time I’ve pondered it. It’s also one aspect of an issue that’s been a lively debate for decades. Does it make much difference whether a pitcher faces a DH or another pitcher? Of course, the DH has made baseball purists apoplectic since its introduction in 1973, but I’m not going to examine that particular issue. I’m just going to assume that MLB will keep it in place. What interests me is the difference between facing a pitcher over a designated hitter.

The following table puts the difference on bold display. Rows 2 through 4 represent pitchers rows 5 through 7 are the designated hitters. Further explanations are offered below the table: read them at your leisure.

G PA H 2B 3B HR R SB BB% K% ISO babip OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2915 5913 654 98 7 24 274 3 3.2 37.1 .036 .220 .162 .165 .149 -15
28 57 6 1 0 0 3 0 2 21
162 329 36 5 0 1 15 0 11 122
3084 11803 2774 508 25 449 1339 64 9.4 19.8 .182 .298 .339 .447 .339 114
28 107 25 5 0 4 12 1 10 21
162 620 146 27 1 24 70 3 58 123

As you may have already noticed, there are several assumptions made in this table. If you haven’t, here they are:

  • 32-35 starts per pitcher;
  • 28 G is an approximation of the number of games that a pitcher would face another pitcher in the NL, and takes into account inter-league play and a missed start or two; it also represents the obverse for an AL pitcher, with the same stipulations (inter-league play; missed starts);
  • none of the figures are dead-on accurate, but represent generalizations (all numbers are rounded, then the rounded numbers are used in other calculations);
  • the 162-game row is for perspective and illustration: those numbers are calculated independent of the 28-game row;
  • pinch hitters (the ones who come in after the two PA by the starting pitcher) have been disregarded;
  • there is no differentiation between the quality of pitchers in their relative league, i.e. there’s an assumption that NL pitchers and AL pitchers are equally talented;

Who Creates the Most Stress for the Guy on the Mound?

We’ve accumulated and crunched a lot of numbers to confirm something we already know. You’re welcome. It’s pretty shocking, I know, but here’s the longer, non-table version. Based on the 2012 season (which isn’t very different from 2011 except in the obvious manner: it was one year later), pitchers are four times less likely to get a hit and three times less likely to get a walk than a DH. If a pitcher gets a hit, it’ll be an extra-base hit fewer than four times in 1000 plate appearances. When it gets right down to it, a pitcher is about twice as likely to strike out and half as likely to get on base as a DH.

If by some stretch of the imagination the pitcher does get on base, not much happens. First, pitchers (-34.3) tend to be better base runners than DHs (-53.8), but neither group is much good on the basepaths. Because they’re paid handsomely to throw baseballs, pitchers wear jackets on the basepaths and THEY DON’T STEAL BASES. I can’t say it any louder than that. DHs are usually older ballplayers (e.g. David Ortiz) who are paid to hit. Being, um, heavier and older, they don’t steal many bases either. However, even though pitchers will score two times in seven when they get on base and DHs about one time in three, a DH is five times more likely to score a run than a pitcher.

There’s a practical application to all of this number crunching. New Blue Jay pitcher Josh Johnson is a career National Leaguer and will need to change his strategy somewhat. Fans witnessed the transition made by Ryan Dempster last season and he wasn’t very successful, even after the Rangers acquired his ‘personal’ catcher. As Jays’ fans, we can only hope that Dempster’s struggles continue as he plies his trade with the Red Sox (Dang that John Farrell! Dang him straight to heck!). We shouldn’t read too much into Dempster’s struggles, though: others have made the transition from NL to AL with very little difficulty. As good and loyal Jays’ fans we want Josh Johnson to be like them, not like Ryan Dempster.

Ho-Hum

Highly-paid professionals should be good at their job. Sometimes a bad day, the flu, an injury, too little coffee, or some other obstacle can get in the way of optimal performance, but all-in-all, performance norms should be expected. However, when highly-paid professionals are asked to do something for which they’re ill-suited, performance expectations need to be adjusted accordingly. In other words, if I hire a plumber to shingle my roof, I need to ratchet my expectations downward: that plumber ain’t gonna do as good a job up there as a roofer will. Pitchers are paid to pitch, not hit, so expectations are lower when they come to the plate. Designated hitters, on the other hand, still have something to offer offensively. Expectations are correspondingly higher. Personally, I expect as much from Brandon Morrow at the plate as I expect from Mike McCoy on the mound.

My Dad used to talk about baseball back in the good ol’ days, when lots of pitchers were good hitters. Sadly, my Dad’s memory on the matter was pretty selective. Pitchers have always been terrible hitters; very, very few have been decent with the stick. This is why it’s rare that a pitcher’s stress level will rise when the other pitcher comes to the plate.

However, if you’re looking to pick up a good-hitting pitcher for your fantasy team then grab Mike Leake. He socked two of the 24 HR that NL pitchers hit last season and scored eight runs. His .410 babip wasn’t too shabby either. Overall, Leake was a 1.0 WAR hitter for the Reds. Hmm, maybe the Royals should grab him and stick him in right field.

Smile. Opening Day is a few short weeks away…

Wes Kepstro

The Potential Legend Of R.A. Dickey

Wendel Clark, Doug Flutie, Doug Gilmour, Joe Carter, Mats Sundin, Vince Carter – R.A. Dickey?

One of these things is not like the other right?  Including R.A. Dickey amongst a who’s who of legendary Toronto sports figures might seem a tad strange at this juncture but the opportunity to become a part of history is there for Mr. Dickey.

I don’t think R.A. Dickey fully understands the ramifications of what he is about to embark on.  The American stereotypical view that the Toronto baseball market is apathetic, aloof or just plain doesn’t care is about to get turned upside down.

R.A. Dickey has the chance to join only a handful of others that have been completely revered and worshiped by the city of Toronto – and still are in many respects.  There is a buzz surrounding the beginning of this coming baseball season that is palpable.  The city is starved for a winner, a contender, a championship.

Doug Gilmour is still considered a legend in Toronto though his time in Toronto was relatively short and brought only back-to-back Conference final appearances.  Wendel Clark had a few stints with the Maple Leafs and fans will always have a soft spot for one of the fiercest competitors the team has ever seen.

Doug Flutie came and went like a hurricane but the city of Toronto will definitely never forget the diminutive quarter back that brought the CFL’s Argonauts Grey Cup glory.  People in Toronto still hold a grudge against Wade Phillips and Rob Johnson with his girly headband.

It’s more complicated with Mats Sundin, it always was.  He is the opposite of Doug Gilmour in some ways but his greatness can never be questioned.  The longevity, the production and the professionalism was a marvel to behold even if everyone in the city wasn’t entirely sold on him.  He is the greatest Maple Leaf of all-time in my opinion.

Love him or hate him Toronto sports fans will never forget Vincent Lamond Carter.  We loved him as much as we have loved any player and were heartbroken with how it all ended.  The hatred is started to slowly wear off and I firmly believe he will be given a warm reception if he ever returns to the city when his playing career comes to an end.

Joe Carter hit the homerun.  Enough said.

This leaves R.A. Dickey.

So why R.A. Dickey?  Why not Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson or Melky Cabrera?

All of them are great players in their own right however none have the back story of Mr. Dickey.  None were basically written off and thrown away by the cold, hard world of sports like Mr. Dickey.  Jose Bautista is a productive and popular player but no one has quite the allure and intrigue of an R.A. Dickey.

No one has such a cool name either.

If Toronto sports fans have proven one thing they tend to embrace the hard working journeyman, the lunch bucket guy, the blue collar workhorse.  I think they will especially come to love a guy who relies on something seemingly impossible to rely on – the knuckleball.

Think Matt Bonner, Reggie Evans, Tie Domi and of course the strangest obsession of all, John McDonald.  Now add the back story, the name and the mainstream media attention that will almost certainly be bestowed upon him and now perhaps you can see the writing on the wall.

R.A. Dickey has the chance to one-up all of these beloved characters in the Toronto sports sub-culture.  He has a chance to dominate and help a city starving for a winner reach the Promised Land.  R.A. Dickey not only has the grit, character and back story Torontonians love but he also brings with him an undeniable talent.

R.A. Dickey dominated National League hitters last season en route to an improbable Cy Young award.  He isn’t just a defensive replacement in the ninth inning or a role player coming off the bench to hustle and pick up a few loose rebounds.  He could be one of the best pitchers in the division and a real game changer.  Read here about his past three seasons.

Unbeknownst to him he has a chance to become one of the most popular athletes of all time.  Yes this might sound like hyperbole but tell me I’m wrong.  Tell me that if R.A. Dickey, with his nuclear pitch, blue collar attitude and rags to riches story helps lead the Toronto Blue Jays to a World Series title (or two) that his legend won’t be firmly cemented?

While hardly making him a legend he was already named the opening day starter.

Yes his stats back up that selection by John Gibbons given he did just win the Cy Young.  But I think the selection was more of an anointment that this is our guy.  This is a passing of the torch so to speak, a changing of the guard.  Nobody embodies the tireless pursuit of greatness and perhaps the ability to change the perception of an entire franchise like him.

The hired gun known as Robert Allen Dickey is probably one of the unlikeliest candidates to ever become the face of the Toronto Blue Jays.  But if he fully embraces this role and meets the lofty standards already in place for not only himself but this team than we can always remember that the legend of R.A. Dickey began here.

Don’t deny it you are just as intrigued as I am.

 


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