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Mission ’13, Game 48: Orioles win 10-6

Published May 24, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps Leave a Comment
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The Toronto Blue Jays have had several starting pitching prospects debut for them over the last few years (Hutchison, Drabek, Alvarez, Jenkins, among others). Tonight is lefthander Sean Nolin’s turn. A number of injuries have brought Nolin up the depth chart, despite an early-season injury of his own.

 Melky’s May Meter

2-5

28 hits

Again Melky led off the Blue Jays’ half of the first with a hit; this time it was a home run. This put the Jays on the board, but they still trailed 3-1. Melky’s well on his way to a 35-hit month.

Sean Nolin looked good, perhaps a little too good. He threw a fastball, curveball and change-up in his very brief outing. The problem was that everything was over the middle of the plate, about belt high. The O’s are a good hitting team, and they took advantage, building a 6-1 lead before the second inning was complete. Nolin lasted 1.1 innings and threw 35 pitches, 22 for strikes, but gave up 7 hits and 6 earned runs.

The Blue Jays didn’t roll over, though. Melky and Brett Lawrie homered to make it 6-2, then Colby Rasmus doubled and Emilio Bonifacio singled to make it 6-3 for the Orioles. Conventional wisdom says that if the Jays’ ‘pen could keep them close, then the Jays could make a game of it.

Unfortunately Ramon Ortiz, who relieved Sean Nolin, gave up two home runs and three runs in his first inning of work. Chris Davis, who possesses easy power much like Josh Hamilton does, and Danny Valencia with a two-run shot, made it 9-3 Orioles in the 3rd inning. The offensive star of the game early on, though, has no homers: lead-off hitter Nick Markakis has two doubles and a single and two runs scored through 3 innings.

Things got a little testy in the bottom of the third as Brett Lawrie objected to how the strike zone was being interpreted a little too stridently for the umpire’s liking. He tossed Lawrie from the game—rightfully so—and when John Gibbons came out to make his opinion known, he was tossed as well. Brett Lawrie’s not good enough to complain as much as he does. His attitude was a major contributor to why Doug Melvin was prepared to trade him from Milwaukee (see article here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/05/nl-central-notes-hart-choo-arroyo-cardinals.html#disqus_thread).

Orioles’ starter Pat Tillman wasn’t very sharp, either. The Jays hit him hard and scored but weren’t able to keep up with the Orioles’ offensive explosion. He typically doesn’t pitch very well against the Jays, and tonight was no exception. Through four innings, the Jays scored 3 runs on 8 hits, 4 of which were extra base hits (2 doubles, 2 home runs).

The bottom end of the Jays’ ‘pen has made it easier for the Orioles. Ramon Ortiz pitched 2.2 innings and gave up 3 runs. He was relieved by Brad Lincoln, who’s up to his old tricks. He loaded the bases with 2 hits and a walk before inducing a fly ball for the third out. He didn’t give up any runs until a 6th inning solo HR by Adam Jones, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.

Lincoln demonstrated such good control in his half season with the Pirates (59.1 IP, 51 H, 14 BB, 60 SO) prior to the Snider-for-Lincoln deal, that his inability to get hitters out regularly is surprising. He’s walked at least one batter in each appearance before the 12-6 win over BAL, when he didn’t walk anybody. Is this another case of the difference between NL Central-AL East parks and batters?

Watching JP Arencibia strike out for the 3rd time in the game afforded me an opportunity to research something that I suspected about him, but had no evidence to support or dismantle my theory. He has terrific power which, of course, would be even better if he was a better hitter, but it seemed to me that the overwhelming majority of his HR came very early in the count. Taking a peek at his HR log at www.baseball-reference.com confirmed the suspicion. 32 of his 54 careers homers (59.25%) have been hit on or before he sees the 3rd pitch of the at bat, while he’s hit 8 on the 4th pitch. That leaves 14 home runs after the 4th pitch of an at bat. The deeper he goes in the count, the less power he displays. I’m sorry to leave it without context, but I don’t know how common this is for hitters. JP Arencibia’s all-or-nothing tendencies at the plate certainly exaggerate this discovery. Another interesting tidbit is that in 371 PA when the pitcher is ahead in the count (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), JPA has NEVER walked. Not once.

20-year old Baltimore 3B Manny Machado recorded his 5th straight road game with 3 or more hits. He plays an exceptional 3B for someone who: is 20 years old, and played 2 games at 3B prior to his ML debut. There is at least a whisper that the O’s would like to move him back to SS when JJ Hardy vacates the position. It’s a nice problem for the O’s: Machado is well above grade at both positions on the left side of the infield, and his offensive ability (presently .337/.367/.529) stacks up well against a couple of budding ML stars named Trout and Harper. There were two young, highly-regarded 3B in the game tonight. I know which one I believe is going to be a difference maker in his ML career.

I haven’t been very complimentary about the bottom of the Jays’ ‘pen this season, Brett Cecil excepted, but Esmil Rogers pitched well enough to let his team continue to chip away at the Orioles lead. Even after putting runners on 2nd and 3rd in the top of the 8th inning, he induced two pop-ups and a routine fly ball to end the inning with no damage done.

The Jays didn’t rally, falling to the Orioles in the second game. RA Dickey gets the nod in game 3 for the Jays. They don’t need to take 3 of 4 from the O’s, but it sure would be nice if they did.

Wes Kepstro

Mission ’13, Game 47: Jays win 12-6

Published May 23, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps 2 Comments
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It’s kids night at the Rog with Machado at 3B, Gausman on the mound, Nolin called up to start tomorrow, and Gose on the bench waiting for his turn. SP Kevin Gausman was drafted in the 1st round in 2012 and has only pitched 12 ball games before getting the call and replacing struggling Jake Arrieta on the big club. Toronto counters with Brandon Morrow, as the Jays look to continue their improved play.

Melky’s May Meter

1-3

26 hits

Melky didn’t take long to boost his May hit total, as he singled in the bottom of the first. He was stranded at first, but it’s good to see him continuing to get on base. He has a ways to go to reach the 51 hits he raked last May with the Giants. 3 hits in each of their remaining 8 games this month wouldn’t do it. Seriously though, the 35 hits I hoped for is within reach.

The Orioles, for their part, have struggled lately. Their recent 8-game homestand against San Diego, Tampa Bay, and the Yankees produced a lot of grief (2-6). Early in the game, though, the young guns performed. Manny Machado had a pair of doubles and Gausman was sharp.

Several days ago I wrote apiece openly wondering when we’re going to see the real Brandon Morrow. Is it time to accept that the inconsistent Brandon Morrow IS the real Brandon Morrow? This is his second start since missing 13 days, and he’s struggling. Machado doubled twice and Chris Davis homered as Morrow spotted the Orioles a 3-0 lead.

Morrow’s right around he plate, as the 5 hits, 5 Ks and only one walk attest, but he’s eminently hittable. That’s been the rub this season for Morrow: too few Ks (6.95 K/9), too many BBs (3.38 BB/9), too many hits (9.79 H/9), too many HRs (1.59 HR/9). Morrow’s fastball velocity (93.5) is not only very much in line with his Toronto career (93.47), but is at or near the top of the AL this season. His fastball ain’t the problem; location is.

The Jays saw enough of Kevin Gausman by the second time through the order to figure him out a little. Doubles by Lind and Arencibia scored a run, then a bunt base hit by Lawrie and a walk to Colby Rasmus loaded the bases. Bonifacio hit a sac fly to deep right center, Munenori botched a suicide squeeze—popping out to Wieters, but Lawrie scrambled back to 3B—before Melky laced a liner to left center that hung up just enough for Adam Jones to tack it down for the third out. The mini rally puts the Jays in the game, trailing the O’s 3-2.

Morrow followed the Jays’ outburst with a quick inning, yielding only another Machado double (his third in 5 innings [!], pushing his league-leading total to 21). The Jays’ hitters responded with a couple of runs in the bottom of the inning. Adam Lind singled sharply into LF with two out and was followed by a 2-run HR by JP Arencibia, putting the Jays in front 4-3.

Morrow set down the O’s in order in the top of the 6th inning, making it the second time this game that the Jays have scored and Morrow has done his job quickly. The hitters responded again with two outs, as Kawasaki and Melky walked to bring Jose Bautista to the plate. (In case you missed it, Jose had a pretty decent effort in the deciding game against the Rays: his wRC+ for the game was 774. Baseball-Reference had his RE24 at 4.05.) Bautista walked to load the bases for Edwin Encarnacion, who lined a grand slam off the net in LF. I love me my chicken wings, yes I do. The Jays pushed their lead to 8-3.

**Early in the inning, Nate McClouth fell into the stands fielding a fly ball. The umpire gave the out sign but clearly was unable to see what transpired. Every fan in the vicinity and Jamie Campbell from his position immediately above the play agreed: McClouth dropped the ball and, knowing that he couldn’t be seen by the umpire, picked it up and showed the umpire that he’d made the catch. Colby Rasmus was called out on the play. Some idiot with a good line of sight but terrible judgment threw a beverage on the field at McClouth. Not only was it ill-advised, it was unnecessary: EE took care of business.

The O’s took back one of those runs in the 7th inning on a sac fly by Alexi Casilla, then two more in the 8th on home runs by Nick Markakis and Adam Jones to make the score 8-6. Immediately following the home run, Pat Tabler’s first comment was “Morrow’s still under 100 pitches.” After Jones’s home run, Tabler said “he’s still in line for the W.” Incredible. If that doesn’t illustrate old school thinking about pitcher wins and losses, I don’t know what does. Morrow’s line for the game was 7+ IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO. In other words he pitched marginally better than the O’s pitchers, who pitched very poorly. The O’s had 7 extra base hits in the game. Morrow wasn’t fooling anybody except, perhaps, Matt Wieters.

The bottom of the 8th was interesting. Anthony Gose singled on a 3-2 pitch from lefty TJ McFarland. Bautista hit a sharp grounder to sure-handed JJ Hardy at SS, who bobbled it. Then Wieters misplayed a pitch to Edwin for a passed ball, allowing the runners to advance. On the throw to 2nd, Gose ran home and Casilla’s throw was high, allowing Gose to slide under/around Wieters’ tag. Bautista advanced to third. DeRosa pinch hit for Lind and walked. JP Arencibia’s sac fly was the first out of the inning. Lawrie singled, scoring a run. Colby’s sac fly was the second out. Casilla almost made a brilliant play on Bonifacio’s humpback liner into shallow center but it scored a run, too. Munenori Kawasaki then grounded out to Chris Davis at first to end the inning. If I watched this game, having just returned from a three-year stint at the end of the world, I would have thought that the O’s were the same team that they were since 1998. They haven’t played this poorly in ages.

Brad Lincoln came in for mop-up duty and for the first time this year, he didn’t walk anyone. Brandon Morrow’s poor start was accommodated by an orgy of offense, as the Jays tied their season high for runs. Importantly, the Jays beat a team in their division that is, (1) ahead of them, and (2) struggling lately. The Jays are capitalizing on situations in the game, as well as the larger situations in the AL East. This was yet another good win.

Wes Kepstro

Sean Nolin – Come On Down

Published May 23, 2013 AL East News , Jays Rumours , Jays Talk , Prospect Profiles Leave a Comment
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Sean Nolin is expected to get the start tomorrow night in game two of a four game series versus Baltimore.  The 23-year old started the season on the disabled list before making three starts in 2013.  His results have been outstanding over 15.1 innings as he has a posted a stellar 2.29 FIP with a 9.39 K/9.

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs ranked him as the #9 Blue Jays prospect (prior to the exodus of all of our top names) and wrote the following:

One of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season was the emergence of Nolin. As one front office person stated, “I haven’t seen him on any top prospect lists yet, but he should be.” The southpaw missed some time due to injury but he blew through high-A ball with a 2.19 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 86.1 innings. Nolin, 22, also made three starts in double-A. He has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and could develop into a No. 3 or 4 starter depending on the development of his secondary stuff. He’s very aggressive with his fastball that sits in the low 90s and it can touch 93-94 mph. His curveball has a shot at developing into a plus pitch but his changeup was referred to by the evaluator as “a work in progress.” It was also suggested that, if the repertoire cannot be improved upon, Nolin could be a successful “power lefty coming out of the ‘pen.” He should return to the starting rotation at the double-A level in 2013 and, if he can stay healthy, he could reach the majors by the end of the year.

He also scouted his second start of the 2013 season and had the following observations

Nolin, 23, face the New York Yankees Double-A affiliate, which featured some talented but inexperienced young prospects. He looked a little rusty early on, which was not a surprise considering his season didn’t start until May 7. His full windup lacked fluidity in the first inning but got better as the game went on.

Early on, the left-handed pitcher struggled with his fastball command and the opposing hitters were having some really good hacks on his offerings. He was also not throwing his curveball for strikes on a consistent basis. The good news is that those issues should be correctable. At least part of the issue was due to Nolin’s mechanics. His body was drifting forward, causing his arm to drag behind him and messing with his release. It improved as the game progressed and once he stopped rushing through his delivery, although he’s a naturally-quick worker.

Nolin doesn’t do himself any favors with his delivery because he ends his follow-through in a very poor fielding position and I watched two catchable bouncers get past him. By landing in a more favorable position, he could potentially snag or knock down a lot more ground balls.

In general, his delivery suggests to me that he’ll never have better than average command. I would give his low-90s fastball a potential 50 grade and his curveball a 55-60. He didn’t use his changeup much at all in this game and I would have a tough time putting a fair grade on the offering. Based on what I saw (keeping in mind this was just his third start on the year), I would have to rate Nolin as a future No. 4 starter. He doesn’t look ready for the majors but another 10-15 minor league starts could make a world of difference.

While his minor league pedigree has been fairly impressive needless to say expectations need to be tempered.  He is being called up because “who else”?  The Blue Jays are fighting tooth and nail to keep this season from becoming a complete waste and are hopeful Nolin can fill in with a spot start (or two).

Mission ’13, Game 46: Jays win 4-3 in extras

Published May 22, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps 3 Comments
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We begin with trivia: it’s been one month since JP Arencibia’s last base on balls. Wow. We also forgot Melky’s totals from yesterday’s game. There’s not much to report, as Melky was hitless. With his strikeout as pinch hitter today, Melky remains at 25 hits for May.

Melky’s May Meter

0-1

25 hits

This is the rubber match of a series against a team that’s owned the Jays for years. The Jays haven’t won a series in Tampa Bay for ages; they haven’t won a series against the Rays in the Rog since 2010. This afternoon’s match-up should be a good pitcher’s duel, but neither Buehrle nor Hellickson have pitched well this season. It could be a high-scoring game.

One reason that the Jays struggle against the Rays is that the Rays excel at the fundamentals, whereas the Jays are usually fundamentally unsound. This was illustrated in the bottom of the first inning. Anthony Gose doubled to lead off, then Jose Bautista did everything right at the plate as the #2 hitter. He attempted a bunt, which almost worked. He followed that with an inside-out swing, in another attempt to move Gose to third. Then Bautista singled to right-center, scoring Gose and giving the Jays an early lead. Everything about the scenario was fundamentally sound, and it worked in the Jays’ favour.

Fundamentals were then excused from the playing field. A fly ball by Edwin Encarnacion to left field was caught by Kelly Johnson. Jose tagged up and was thrown out by a country mile. The rationale (‘logic’ doesn’t apply here) is simple: KJ is an infielder, so test his arm. The problems with that rationale are few; it’s transferring the rationale into action that creates the problems. For instance, the ball was hit almost right at KJ, making it a straightforward throw. Jose had the entire play in front of him. Had the ball been off-line, it would have lowered the possibility of being doubled up at 2B.

The occurrence of a thought doesn’t require action. Jose could have bluffed, gone half way, or just shelved the idea as a good one but one for a different situation. Instead, he was doubled off. This drastically reduced the likelihood of the Jays scoring more than once against a team that’s been at or near the top of MLB offensively of late. His excellent at bat wasn’t wasted; what was wasted was the opportunity to make it more than a 1-run inning.

Speaking of fundamentally unsound, Maicer Izturis attempted to barehand a squibber off the end of the bat by Ryan Roberts. Again, the rationale is simple: barehand the ball, get the runner, end the inning. He missed though, and was unlikely to get Roberts anyways.

Roberts was safe at 1B and Jose Molina—not exactly a speed merchant—scored from second because no one was in a position to field the ball. Ben Zobrist followed with another run-scoring single, making the score 2-1 Rays. A walk to Longoria loaded the bases for one of the toughest outs in the AL this season, James Loney. He flied out, but the Jays gave up two runs, faced three extra batters, and a good start by Buehrle turned into potentially another one of ‘those’ starts.

The complexion of the game changed because of two superficially-understandable-but-essentially-boneheaded, fundamentally-unsound plays by the Jays. Little League managers everywhere are rocking like Leo Mazzone, wondering how a Major League team can commit such basic mental errors. Is it the end of the world? Of course not, you can’t even see it from here. (Indeed, a long blast by Bautista tied the game at two.) No, the problem is that these types of errors are committed by the Jays with such startling regularity. The Jays have struggled in every facet of baseball so far this season. They can’t afford to give away outs or give their opponents extra outs. If the Jays are going to reel in the rest of the AL East, I suspect it will start by executing the fundamentals in all facets of the game. When’s the last time that you heard the Blue Jays described as being disciplined and fundamentally sound?

What looked like a potentially high-scoring game turned into a pitcher’s duel, with Hellickson and Buehrle both pitching well and going at least 7 innings. Delabar came in to pitch the 8th inning and needed only 7 pitches to retire the side.

Casey Janssen gave up a run in the ninth on a double by Longoria and a single by Loney. The smart money was on intentionally walking the guy with the short swing hitting .350, but the damage was done. In the bottom of the inning, Jose Bautista led off with his second homer of th game to tie it. It came against Fernando Rodney who has blown 4 saves this year, 2 against the Jays. He blew 2 save opportunities all of last year. The predictable JPA whiff and Lawrie pop out sent this game to extra innings.

Aaron Loup retired the side in order in the top of the 10th inning, leaving it to the hitters to decide this one for the Jays. A swinging bunts put Colby Rasmus on first, and he moved to second on a very good sac bunt by Emilio Bonifacio and third on another swinging bunt by Munenori Kawasaki. It’s not often that the Jays put a runner on third without the ball having left the infield, but they’ve executed the fundamentals very well this inning. DeRosa was brought in to pinch hit for Anthony Gose with two out and Bautista on deck. As Buck and Tabby pointed out this is a great move by Gibbons because they want to pitch to DeRosa, not Bautista. A five-pitch walk brought Bautista to the plate, Maddon to the mound, and Farnsworth in from the ‘pen. 41 home runs in the 7th inning or later since 2010 ties Bautista with none other than Miguel Cabrera for the Major League lead. It wasn’t to be, though; he singled to right on an 0-2 pitch for the win. It’s been a long time since the Jays beat the Rays in a series. 16 series, to be exact. This is a good win for the Jays.

As frustrating as the Jays can be when they don’t do the small things well, they came through when it mattered today. They mixed the long ball, bunts, and good base running to offset some brain cramps today.

Wes Kepstro

Scouts Unimpressed With Josh Johnson’s First Rehab Start

Published May 22, 2013 Jays Talk 1 Comment
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Highly touted acquisition Josh Johnson made his first rehab start yesterday throwing three innings allowing only one run, no walks and five strikeouts.  This must bode well given that pitching line that Johnson is ready to return to the majors and become the dominant starting pitcher the Blue Jays hoped they had acquired.

However scouts who had attended the Dunedin, FL minor league game were less than impressed.

According to a story by Danny Knobler of CBS Sports:

Johnson pitched three innings Monday night in a minor-league rehab start, his first game action since an April 21 start for the Blue Jays. The numbers — three innings, one run, no walks, five strikeouts — weren’t bad.

The scouting reports were worse.

“OK, but nothing great,” said one scout who saw Johnson this spring and was in attendance Monday. “He was pitching at 91-92 [mph]. He didn’t pitch like he did in the spring. He looked healthy, free and easy, but there were a lot of pitches in the middle of the plate.

“He threw some nasty sliders, but there were others that major-league hitters would hit for home runs. And his fastball didn’t have a lot of life.

“In a big-league game, he would have gotten hit hard.”

It was only one start but for the Blue Jays to have any chance (slim as they are) to get back into the playoff hunt a healthy and dominant Josh Johnson is needed.  We knew he was injury prone and this is likely costing Johnson millions as an impending free agent next year.

Could Marcus Stroman Make A Difference in 2013?

Published May 22, 2013 Jays Rumours , Jays Talk , Prospect Profiles , Prospect Reports Leave a Comment
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Marcus Stroman was drafted 22nd overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012 MLB draft and the brass felt he could be a fast riser through the system.  While he stands only 5’9″ and weighs around 180 pounds Stroman can fire his fastball into the mid 90s and has a slider that Marc Hulet of Fangraphs feels could be 65-70 when fully developed.  In short, he has the goods.  The only negative thus far was the 50-game suspension for his positive PED test and the fact some scouts do not see a starting pitcher.

Stroman is only 21 years old and in 19.1 professional innings had a very solid 10.71 K/9 and 2.89 FIP.  He has recently returned from his 50-game suspension and was very impressive tossing 5 shutout innings allowing just four hits, one walk and striking out six.

David Laurilia of Fangraphs sat down with him and it sounds like Stroman is bursting with confidence.  He feels he can be a starting pitcher, tested positive for an over-the-counter stimulant and how he mostly works off of his four-seam fastball right now.

Stroman on his suspension and starting over: “[The suspension] was for an over-the-counter stimulant I was taking. I didn’t know it was something I’d test positive for. It was definitely hard to cope with. I was sent home, then went to instructs for three or four weeks. I closed there — I didn’t start.

“When I reported to spring training they let me know they were going to give me a chance to start this year. I had all these games I had to serve, and they stretched me out during spring training and extended. I was able to work on all four of my pitches, and really develop into a starter’s role.

“I loved being told I was going to start. I certainly wasn’t mad, or anything like that. I did both at Duke, so I have experience with both. I knew I’d be able to get into a good routine and really get going.

“I honestly couldn’t tell you what the Blue Jays are thinking down the road — I just know I’m starting now. I feel I can have success as a starter, I definitely don’t feel I’ll be limited to the bullpen.”

Read the full interview here, a great story.

Given the Blue Jays desperate situation in the AL East and current injury woes would the Jays front office possibly think about calling him up and take a spot in the big league rotation?

Mission ’13, Game 45: Rays win 4-3

Published May 21, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps Leave a Comment
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There have been a lot of rumblings around Blue Jay sites that Ramon Ortiz will only be so effective for so long, and that tonight will be the start of his slide. There’s some wisdom to the thought process, of course: he’s a retread who’s filling a gap. But the flip side of the coin is that there’s no way that anyone knows whether he’ll be mostly ineffective, or whether he will provide the same sort of innings-eating, veteran presence that Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon have given their teams for the last several years.

Perhaps those people are more intuitive than the average bear. Ramon Ortiz was ineffective against the Rays, who took advantage of Ortiz’s inability to locate his pitches to jump out to an early lead. Ortiz was relieved after 2.1 IP in which he gave up 6 hits and a walk. Two of those hits were home runs (Kelly Johnson; Desmond Jennings).

Alex Cobb, on the other hand, was very effective. Yet another of the seemingly inexhaustible stable of good young pitchers that the Rays trot out regularly, Cobb put his value on display in this game. He gave up a long, loud home run to Colby Rasmus, but only two other hits and two walks in 6.1 IP.

The Jays had heir opportunity against the Rays’ ‘pen in the 8th but, after loading the bases, Edwin struck out and JP Arencibia hit into a DP on the first pitch he saw. The set-up was eerily similar to their recent comeback win against Rodney and the Rays, but it was not to be repeated tonight. A wild pitch by Rodney in the 9th inning scored Colby Rasmus after Rasmus doubled and took 3rd on a ground out, making the final score 4-3.

Here’s something that I’ve been wanting to look into this season. The following table shows the offensive performance by former Jays against their old team this season:

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

K

R. Roberts

10

1

3

1

0

0

1

2

1

K. Johnson

19

6

8

2

0

2

4

1

5

Y. Escobar

21

3

4

0

0

2

3

0

0

V. Wells

37

5

12

0

0

3

6

1

4

L. Overbay

29

3

8

1

1

2

5

1

4

A. Rios

14

2

4

1

0

1

1

2

2

M. Scutaro

8

2

4

0

0

0

0

1

1

J. Molina

10

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

J. Nix

26

4

7

0

0

0

2

4

7

M. Napoli

38

9

10

4

0

5

12

2

15

Totals

212

40

60

9

1

15

34

15

36

This info was gleaned from www.baseball-reference.com

One sac fly and two HBP gives former Jays a .288/.335/.547 slash line against their old club this season. Mike Napoli is a little bit of a stretch to call a ‘former Blue Jay’ but his rights did belong to the club,albeit briefly. Undoubtedly I’ve forgotten some players but this is indicative. It’s surprising. Pay special attention to the number of at bats. In many cases, the AL East players have at least twice as many ABs against the Jays than they have against anyone else, including other AL East clubs.

Not all was lost tonight, though. John Gibbons’ early hook for Ramon Ortiz was a good move, allowing the Jays to stay close and get into the Rays’ ‘pen. To his credit, Ortiz stayed in the dugout with his teammates. Loup, Delabar, and Cecil pitched very well in relief.

The defense was also terrific. Ortiz (2.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB) and, to a lesser extent, the ‘pen (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB) put runners on base but the Jays turned a season-high 4 DPs to hold the Rays to 4 runs and give themselves a chance to get back into the game.

The Jays and Rays wrap up the series Wednesday afternoon: this time the Jays are looking to win the series. Game time is 4 pm.

Wes Kepstro

Jesse Barfield: The Greatest Ever?

Published May 21, 2013 Jays Talk 4 Comments
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It’s funny, you know. I didn’t even set out to dig into Jesse Barfield’s career. I was marveling at Colby Rasmus’s K-rate and wondered how it stood up against some of the all-time K-rates since 1903, when the American League came into existence. That eventually led to seeing Barry Bonds’ defensive numbers—yes, his defensive numbers—and wondering if they were the highest ever, or at least among the highest ever. They were, but that wasn’t the most intriguing discovery. Jesse Barfield’s were also among the best ever. It’s like MLB meets National Treasure: keep looking and you’ll find the treasure. “Wow” moments are awesome.

Jays’ fans have been treated to some good players since 1977. There’s not a single all-timer among them, but some of them were pretty darn good. Among those pretty good players have been some top-notch defenders, two of whom (Devon White; John Olerud) were champs. Others were only Jays briefly, such as Scott Rolen, Orlando Hudson and Omar Vizquel; still others were developed by and played the bulk of their careers with the Jays. Foremost among these were Vernon Wells, Tony Fernandez, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield.

Perhaps you recall when Jesse patrolled right field for the Jays. He was one of the young trio of outfielders to be called up in the early ’80s, along with Lloyd Moseby and George Bell. They would become key players for the up-and-coming Blue Jays.

‘Shaker’ came up hitting well, running well, and playing a solid CF. He was more outspoken and flamboyant than most, but had the reputation of being a good teammate. George Bell was the most complete offensive player of the trio, but the least capable with the glove. He was also the most likely to say something ‘off colour’. Think ‘purple’. Jesse Barfield, on the other hand, was quiet and professional. When he put on his uniform he was adequate at the plate, but superlative in the field. How good was he? To tell the truth, surprisingly good.

James Gentile at Hardball Times wrote a piece earlier this year (Feb., 2013) in which he looked at the greatest defenders, position by position, since 1920. The following table is reproduced from that article:

#

Name

Years

Pos.

3 year defensive runs/150

3 year defensive runs

1

Jesse Barfield

1985-87

RF

23.05

68.7

2

Jesse Barfield

1986-88

RF

22.85

65.8

3

Jesse Barfield

1987-89

RF

21.28

60.3

4

Al Kaline

1956-58

RF

20.07

56.6

5

Tony Armas

1980-82

RF

20.03

52.6

6

Brian Jordan

1999-2001

RF

18.86

53.3

7

Jesse Barfield

1988-90

RF

17.98

50.7

8

Ichiro Suzuki

2003-05

RF

16.42

52.0

9

Bobby Abreu

1998-2000

RF

15.98

47.3

10

Roberto Clemente

1966-68

RF

15.91

45.5

Here’s what James Gentile said about his own discovery:

In right field, Jesse Barfield is a name I have not thought of in a long time. I remember Barfield as a respected, above-average outfielder with a strong arm that made up for a merely adequate bat, but I would not have expected him to have ranked as the greatest defensive right fielder of all time. His peak really ran five seasons, from 1985- 1989, and it establishes him as one of the best outfielders to play the game rather conclusively. Al Kaline, Tony Armas and Brian Jordan all make an appearance in the top 10, but none ever put Barfield in any danger. Ichiro, incidentally, fell to eighth best, despite his record-breaking season in 2004: (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/who-was-best-at-playing-the-field/)

Based on the defensive runs statistics found at www.baseball-reference.com, Jesse Barfield produced the top three and four of the top seven defensive seasons in right field since 1920. Surprised? Me, too. I also found it surprising that Roberto Clemente and Ichiro made only one appearance on the list.

Now I’ll throw some leather of my own at you. This table shows the top 20 defenders in MLB since 1903, regardless of position, with some offensive stats for perspective:

#

Player

wRC+

Fld

WAR

1

Brooks Robinson

105

294.0

80.8

2

Andruw Jones

111

278.8

67.8

3

Mark Belanger

71

241.0

35.3

4

Ozzie Smith

90

239.0

67.3

5

Roberto Clemente

129

204.0

80.8

6

Barry Bonds

172

189.6

163.6

7

Willie Mays

154

185.0

150.0

8

Carl Yastrzemski

130

185.0

94.9

9

Cal Ripken

112

181.0

92.5

10

Buddy Bell

108

176.0

61.7

11

Paul Blair

98

174.0

35.9

12

Joe Tinker

95

173.0

51.6

13

Adrian Beltre

111

167.7

60.7

14

Ivan Rodriguez

104

165.1

70.4

15

Jesse Barfield

117

162.0

39.1

16

Clete Boyer

86

158.0

29.6

17

Robin Ventura

114

156.7

57.1

18

Al Kaline

134

156.0

88.8

19

Jim Piersall

91

156.0

28.1

20

Scott Rolen

122

155.0

70.1

This info was adapted from: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1903&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19%2cd

As you can see, the numbers were prioritized according to ‘Fld’, the defensive metric used by www.fangraphs.com. According to www.fangraphs.com, Jesse Barfield is the 15th greatest defender, 7th best OF, and 2nd best RF in MLB history since 1903. Here are some other tidbits to consider about this list of ‘greatest defenders ever’:

  • Brooks Robinson is the greatest defender ever, regardless of position;
  • these players run the gamut of offensive ability, from Belanger, Piersall, and Boyer to Mays and Bonds;
  • there are some very familiar names in the top 20, but some notable absences (Mazeroski, Schmidt, Nettles, etc.);
  • some others in the top 20 may not be as familiar, but they had good reputations that are borne out by the numbers (Belanger, Blair, Tinker, Piersall, etc.);
  • the list favours players from the 1970s and afterwards, but previous generations are represented;
  • Barfield is the only Blue Jay in the top 50, and 1 of only 2 in the top 300 MLB players (John Olerud);
  • Barfield is one of 8 outfielders on the list: the other 7 have sterling reputations as defenders, and the numbers support—or, perhaps, exceed—their reputations;
  • exceeding their ‘reputation’ is a reason why some of these players played after they outlived their usefulness at the plate.

Whether you agree, disagree, or are agnostic about Jesse Barfield being an all-time great defender is good: go ahead and wrestle with it. Two separate sites considered Jesse to be one of the top 2 defensive right fielders of all time. One considered him to be the best defensive right fielder to play MLB since 1920. Better than Clemente. Better than Ichiro. Better than, well, everybody. So, the Jays do have an all-timer in their history. It’s the kind of conclusion that makes you sit up quickly on your couch, perhaps upsetting your Doritos in the process.

As Gentile maintains, Jesse’s defensive peak lasted for 5 seasons and, in his interpretation, cemented Jesse’s position as the greatest right fielder since 1920. Jesse’s career was short, however, making his decline period brief. His 1,411 games were the fewest by any of the top 20; 9 others played at least 1,000 more games than he did. Balancing this is the reality that some of the others moved to other positions to take advantage of their glove, while accounting for decreased speed and range.

Jesse was called up for 25 games in 1981. He platooned with Dave Collins, Rick Leach, and others for the next three years. He became a full-time player in 1985 and, perhaps coincidentally but perhaps not, the Jays won their first division title.

He was the top defensive outfielder in the game for the next five years with two teams, according to www.baseball-reference.com. The Jays traded him to the New York Yankees on April 30, 1989 for LHP Al Leiter. Jesse’s final game in Major League Baseball was on June 17, 1992. Al Leiter was on his way to becoming a very good ML pitcher and the Jays were part way to their first World Series title. Jesse’s offensive deficiencies finally caught up with him, and he was finished at age 32.

One of the last memories I have of Jesse was a story that Joe Carter told. The affable Carter had been acquired by the Jays in a spectacular trade with the Padres and, in Toronto’s first visit to Yankee Stadium, Jesse was walking in one direction down the tunnel and Carter was walking in the other direction. Carter smiled and turned his jersey around to show Jesse that there was a new #29 patrolling the outfield for the Blue Jays.

The most frequent memories that I have are different. They consist of watching a fast outfielder ranging around right field, making throws with a cannon arm to any base with pinpoint accuracy. The numbers confirm that I haven’t lost my mind to mushy sentimentality. Jesse Barfield was better than I remembered him to be and I already thought he was good.

Wes Kepstro

Mission ’13, Game 44: Jays win 7-5

Published May 20, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps 2 Comments
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Melky’s May Meter

2-4

25 hits

Melky continues to tear the cover off the ball this month. He has 25 hits in 17 games and is about half-way to the 51 hits has raked last May for the Giants. May has been a good month so far for the Melk-ster; he’s emerged from the offensive doldrums he experienced in April.

The Jays played poorly in New York but received a weather-related respite and didn’t have to face CC Sabathia trying to salvage game 3 of that series.  However the Tampa Bay Rays are on the playlist, and the Jays traditionally match up poorly against Maddon’s Rays. It’s RA Dickey against Jake Odorizzi, the young pitcher that Tampa picked up from Kansas City in the James Shields deal.

The Jays’ offense took advantage of a couple of early opportunities, leading 3-1 after a Brett Lawrie triple, but the Rays came right back to knot the game at 3 runs each. That’s the way it would stay for a few innings.

The way things have gone for the Jays this year, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the next team that scores will win and the next team that scores will probably be the other guys. Today it wasn’t the other guys. Things have been a little weird, not only for the Jays but for other teams as well. Last year the Rays’ ‘pen pitched to the tune of a 2.88 ERA, thanks in large part to Fernando Rodney’s career year. This year the ‘pen had a 4.78 ERA. The Jays were beneficiaries of the less-effective ‘pen in Tampa Bay just a few games ago, as the ‘pen coughed up leads in successive games, allowing the Jays to split the 4-game series.

Today it was Josh Lueke. Lueke was just called up from AAA Durham, and was brought in to face the bottom of the Jays’ line-up. Three walks later, Edwin Encarnacion made him pay the piper. He doubled to drive in all three base runners and the Jays led 6-3. A Kawasaki triple drove in Henry Blanco from first base to round out the Jays’ scoring. Make it 7-3 Blue Jays.

Strangely, the game wasn’t over, as Casey Janssen was called on to pitch the ninth inning. It’s been a little more than a week since Casey’s last appearance, so a little rust would be understandable. Given his customary efficiency, that means maybe a walk and a hit. Not so. A single and a 2-run home run by Yunel Escobar made the score 7-5 Jays. Then a single by Brandon Jennings and Matt Joyce’s 3rd walk of the day set up a confrontation with Ben Zobrist. Janssen didn’t need to be told who followed Ben Zobrist in the Rays’ line-up. A 3-pitch strikeout ended the Rays’ uprising, and the Jays scuffled away with a not-so-pretty 7-5 win.

RA Dickey pitched very well again and, like Melky, seems to be emerging from his first-month blues. The Nashville native has pitched better of late but the Jays, their fans, and RA himself expect more. Today he delivered. He pitched eight innings of 4-hit ball, and gave up 3 runs—2 earned—while walking 3 and striking out 5. The walks (3) and passed balls (1) are going to be a staple of RA Dickey starts. We Blue Jays’ fans need to realize and accept that.

The other side of that coin is Henry Blanco. Typically White Hank has been an automatic out, but today he was on base three times (2B, 2 BB) and scored twice. I don’t think his offense is the issue anyways. Comments are being made regularly about his influence in the dugout, as well as his rapport with the pitchers—RA Dickey in particular—and JP Arencibia. If there’s one thing the Jays have lacked in recent years, it’s good quality leadership. This year they have several of them, and it’s one of the few pleasant surprises early in the season.

No matter how you slice it, taking game 1 from the Rays is good. The Knashville Knuckler did his thing, and the defense and offense followed suit.  Even Emilio Bonifacio’s getting on base regularly.Good win.

Wes Kepstro

Mission ’13, Game 43: Yankees win 7-2

Published May 18, 2013 Jays Talk , Regular Season Game Recaps 3 Comments
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Melky’s May Meter

1-4

23 hits

Forgotten last night in our look at the Jays’ pitching staff was Melky’s May Meter. He went 2-4, to increase his May total to 22 hits in 61 ABs. It’s been a good half-month or so for Melky.

Speaking of Melky, watching him chase a fly ball in left field reminds me that it’s time to look at the defense. His hammies are bothering him, and he covers noticeably less ground or, perhaps, he covers the same amount of ground but it takes him longer to do it. Either way, we’ll take a peek at the D.

Brandon Morrow isn’t sharp today, not surprisingly. It’s his first start in 13 days, and it comes against a team that hits well and speed bags the Jays. The damage was done by two players who hit especially well against the Jays: Brett Gardiner and Robinson Cano. Cano hit a pair of 2-run homers against Brandon Morrow. Travis Hafner tacked on a 2-run shot in the 8th to complete the scoring.

The Jays have been quiet against David Phelps for the most part. Phelps is the pitcher who, in 4 innings of relief against the Jays earlier this season, struck out 9 batters. The Jays have put runners on base, but done very little with them. Phelps and Kuroda used the same game plan: to their shame, the Jays didn’t change their approach. The result was strikingly similar.

Buck and Tabby have nailed it. They’ve concluded that “they [the Yankees] know how to win”. I guess that’s it, then. A line-up featuring Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix, Austin Romine, Curtis Granderson (fresh off the DL), Travis Hafner, and David Adams “know[s] how to win.” They didn’t pick up all these scrubs and cast-offs, nor did they call up the young guys simply because they needed to fill holes pretty desperately. No, the Yankees are never desperate; they simply added another layer of criteria to their decision-making process. Yes, they needed to fill holes because their all star line-up is seriously depleted, but not just any player will do. The players have to “know how to win”, and these guys fit the bill. *facepalm*

Here’s the Jays’ defense by the numbers:

Inn

BIZ

Plays

RZR

ARM

DPR

RngR

ErrR

UZR

UZR/150

Total

3363

591

493

.834

2.7

-1.0

-8.9

-2.9

-10.2

-3.6

Rank

6

3

3

10

4

12

13

13

12

9

Prev. Rank

3

6

8

14

4

10

14

14

13

13

This info was adapted from: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

  • There’s good news and there’s bad news: the good news is that the Jays’ D isn’t as bad as it was a month ago; the bad news is that their D is still bad;
  • poor defense has meant extra outs, more batters, and considerably more pressure on a pitching staff and offense that have also underperformed
  • let’s illustrate from today’s game:
    • Morrow’s dropped ball opened the door for a 3-run inning;
    • an Izturis error in the 8th inning led to a 2-run HR by Hafner;
    • this was followed by Adam Lind dropping a ball that was squibbed up the 1B line, allowing Lyle Overbay to reach safely;
    • it meant extra work for Oliver, and that the Jays, instead of facing a difficult 3-run deficit heading into the top of the ninth, faced a near-impossible 5-run deficit;
  • Maicer Izturis has committed 3 errors at 3B (Lawrie’s territory) and 2 errors at SS (Reyes’ territory) but no errors at 2B;
  • Brett Lawrie’s arrival has stabilized the infield somewhat, and Reyes will probably have a similar effect defensively but the Jays don’t have the luxury of waiting;
  • the Jays still have significant defensive weak spots at C, 2B, SS, and wherever Rajai (OF) or Bonifacio (OF/IF) play;
  • taken together with the offense and pitching numbers that we’ve already seen, the Jays are right where they ought to be: the bottom of the AL East, and one of the worst teams in MLB.

Looking at the offense, pitching, and defense is illuminating. Any improvement is slight and slow but, dang it, that glass is half full: they’re improving. Realistically, though, we’re watching a team that has so many big problems that 80-85 wins would be a significant achievement.

Todays’ game illustrates the problems they’ve created for themselves all year. Ineffective starting pitching by Brandon Morrow (5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO), in concert with a bobble by Morrow himself and ineffective offense (8 H, 3 xbh, 3 BB, 11 SO leading to 2 ER) led to a 5-run loss. Jose Bautista’s base running gaffe in the first set the tone; the errors and ineffective offense finished the job.

Will the Jays pull it together this season? Their incremental improvements on offense, on the mound, and in the field suggest that if they do it will be too little, too late sort of like the chicken wing in the game today. Edwin’s solo HR, while welcome, only made the score 5-2. Is RA Dickey vs. CC Sabathia another case of too little, too late? That depends on which RA shows up; we can count on a quality start from CC. The Jays will try and avoid the sweep in game 3.

Other Links:

A.L. East Prospect Report – May 16, 2013 – See the daily prospect report with all of the best American League East prospects.

Wes Kepstro

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