Archive for the 'Jays Rumours' Category

Blue Jays Rumours – May 14, 2013

Just a few various links, stories and rumours from around the web involving the Blue Jays:

-As per MLBTR the Blue Jays are the leaders to sign Venezuelan shortstop Yeltsin Gudino, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Gudino is a well-rounded talent who has also received serious interest from the Rangers and A’s in the past.

-Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Beeston isn’t ready to give up on the team this season, writes Chris Toman of MLB.com.  He also isn’t ready to give up on the coaching staff.  ”We started out at 12-24 and made a managerial change, but we’re not going to do that right now,” Beeston said. “I think you look back at 1989 and just look back at what can be after what was. I think we have a very good team and a better team than our record.

-Eno Sarris at Fangraphs had a great piece on RA Dickey and his reduced knuckleball velocity.  It contains a bunch of links to different studies.  Worth a read.

-Marc Hulet at Fangraphs wrote about some of the bad luck finding various Blue Jays prospects this season so far.

-MLBTR has a look at the top ten 2014 pending free agents.

Mission ’13, Game 35: Rays win 10-4

Melky’s May Meter

13 hits

Last year, Melky Cabrera set a Giants’ record with 51 hits in the month of May. Sure, we all know that the record is tainted but, tainted or not, he leapfrogged some pretty impressive company. He passed Ott, Mays, Chili, Stanky, Mize, McCovey, Frisch, Hornsby, Bancroft, Bonds the Older, Clark, Mitchell, Bonds the Younger, Kent, and, well, everyone else. Melky’s heating up again. I don’t expect 51 hits but I mentioned a few games ago that 35 would be nice, so we’re going to keep track.

Back to the game. Edwin Encarnacion launched a two-run HR to dead centre field against Mike Moore to give the Jays an early 2-0 lead. Ricky Romero, in his second MLB start of the season, had nothing. Recording only one out, he gave up three earned runs and was relieved by Edgar Gonzalez with the bases loaded. Gonzalez quickly set down the two batters he faced. The Rays capitalized on Ricky’s wildness to take a one-run lead.

A relatively quiet inning by the Jays in the second was followed by a minor uprising by the Rays. A hustle-double by ex-Jay Kelly Johnson was cashed in by a Ben Zobrist single, making the score 4-2 Rays.

The Jays continue to hit the ball hard against Matt Moore but, for the most part, they’re coming up empty. In the 1st Mark DeRosa hit a ball sharply to CF but was out and in the 3rd JP Arencibia slugged a ball foul, then just got under another pitch to fly out to Brandon Jennings. It would be a shame if they let Moore off the hook.

April 6-8, 2007. 30-12. 17. In order, those numbers refer to: (1) the last time the Jays won a series in Tampa; (2) the Rays’ record against TOR at the Trop since then; and (3) the number of consecutive series won by Tampa Bay against Toronto. Even though Evan Longoria homered to extend their lead to 6-2, the Jays are guaranteed NOT to lose this series. And, since time is on their side, they can still win this series. Heady stuff.

Melky doubled to lead off the visitor’s side of the 5th inning; Matt Moore is struggling. He hasn’t commanded the strike zone very well all night, especially with his curve ball. That high octane fastball will help him make a lot of outs, though. Jose Bautista was Moore’s first strikeout victim of the game which, in itself, is surprising. If they’re unable to mount a rally against Moore, perhaps they can get into the Rays’ ‘pen early for the third straight game. Walks to Encarnacion and Rajai (sandwiched around a fly out by JPA) have loaded the bases for DeRosa. DeRosa struck out, leaving the bases loaded. Through 5, the Jays are 0-7 with RISP and stranded 8 base runners through five innings.

As a result of a terrible call by the home plate umpire, Joe Maddon has been ejected again. It’s his eighth ejection of the season. You’ll recall that he was thrown out of game two for arguing that Sean Rodriguez was called out on a play at the plate. I don’t remember Maddon being this fiery or disagreeable. Perhaps the frustration of a 14-16 record and two straight tough losses is getting to him.

This should help Joe: Kelly Johnson homered in the bottom of the sixth to stretch the Rays’ lead to 8-2. John Gibbons seems more intent on managing the ‘pen and pitching situation than worrying about getting a “W”. I don’t blame Gibbons if this is his thinking, nor do I disagree with it. The Jays have guaranteed at least a series split, but they’ve also had pitching issues the last two nights. JA Happ was injured after 1.1 IP and Ricky Romero was lifted after 0.1 IP tonight: bullpen management is high on the list of priorities right now.

Esmil Rogers relieved Gonzalez and struck out Evan Longoria before giving up a long, run-scoring double to James Loney. James Loney is the quintessential Tampa signing. He struggled in LA, was involved in the franchise-altering trade between LA and BOS last August, then struggled in BOS after the deal. Now he’s tearing the cover off the ball for the Rays while playing solid defense. Yunel continued the hit parade with a sharp single into left to advance Loney to 3B with one out. A sac fly by Luke Scott has made it a four run inning, extending the lead to 10-2.

It’s interesting to speculate what this game would look like if the Jays mustered some hits with RISP. A hit batter and a walk to begin the seventh led to a sac fly and another base running blunder by Jose Bautista getting thrown out at 3B. Arencibia was safe on a fielder’s choice at 1B, then Rajai and DeRosa singled. Rajai rounded second assuming JPA would be sent home but Luis Rivera put up the stop sign with JPA 20 feet around third and Rajai nearly on the bag. Jose Lobaton inexplicably ran toward the pitcher’s mound and JPA took the opportunity to ‘race’ home, making it 10-4 Rays.

A quiet 8th inning for the Jays left them one more inning to complete a highly-improbable comeback in th 9th inning, assuming that Brett Cecil can pitch around the double he gave up to Evan Longoria. Longoria and Kelly Johnson have both had very good games offensively, with a single, double, and home run each.

Cecil pitched around the double with no further harm. A single by JP Arencibia was the lone base runner in the ninth and the Blue Jays 3-game win streak is over.

I appreciate how John Gibbons managed this game, particularly the ‘pen. Ricky Romero’s ineffectiveness put the Jays in a bind early, and Gibbons managed it well. How many times does a manager make a good impression when the other team scores double digits in runs?

Wes Kepstro

Mission ’13, Game 32: Jays win 10-2

This game should be a mismatch, but in the Jays’ favour this time: Lefty Joe Saunders pitches poorly on the road, and Brandon Morrow is due. Heck, the whole team is due, no, overdue. Let’s see how this one plays out over 9 innings.

The early returns are promising. As Buck Martinez mentioned the team “has their hitting shoes on” and that is indeed the case. A double and a sac fly in the first and a single-single-single-RBI ground out had the Jays up 3-0 in the 2nd inning. For his part, Morrow is throwing strikes and getting the bats back out on the field quickly. The way this season has gone to this point makes me cautious, though: I’ll reserve judgment until the later innings.

Michael Saunders is Canadian and a pretty good ballplayer but I hope that he’s injured the next time TOR plays SEA. Well, not injured unless it’s a hangnail or something equally innocuous. Maybe paternity leave or having visa/passport problems is the solution. His big offensive game has been followed by a terrific defensive effort. He robbed Edwin and JPA each of two-base hits in the bottom of the 3rd inning to prevent the Blue Jays from adding a couple of runs to their lead.

Joe Saunders isn’t fooling the Jays at all: they have 5 hits in 3+ innings and have hit the ball very hard on several other occasions. Let’s see if more of these fall into play. Buck and Jack Morris said that the Jays need a laugher. John Gibbons said the Jays need a walk off or something similar to help them ‘breathe easier’. I want them to execute the fundamentals consistently on offense, defense, and on the basepaths and gut out a few wins. Some have said they need to stop swinging for the fences, hit according to the situation, and play more ‘small ball’. There’s no question that something needs to happen: the nature of that ‘something’ is anyone’s guess.

Morrow struggled to open the fifth inning. He walked the first two batters on 8 pitches and only a terrific play at 3B kept a sharp grounder by Jesus Montero on the infield. All hands were safe, though, and the bases were loaded with no one out. The next batter, Robert Andino, hit a ball into the hole at short and the Jays recorded an out, but a run scored. The specter of facing Michael Saunders with runners on base is now a reality. Saunders walked to re-load the bases, bringing Kyl Seager to the plate. Prior to the 5th inning, Seager was the only batter to work Morrow for a hit (a 2B in the first). Seager hit a sac fly into medium depth LF to make the score 3-2. Another walk—four in the inning—to Kendrys Morales has loaded the bases again, and the ‘pen is getting ready. The M’s mini-rally ended with a fly ball to medium-shallow CF. Brandon Morrow’s failure to be aggressive (Jack Morris: “he’s being too fine”) let the M’s back into the game. TOR can’t break through offensively against anyone this year, and the pitchers exacerbate the problem by refusing to rely on their ‘stuff’ and pitch situationally. Prior to this inning, Morrow retired 10 in a row; he gave up two hits and four walks in the inning. They were lucky to retain the lead.

Maybe this is what they needed: Melky Cabrera hit his first home run of the season after Morrow struggled so greatly in the top of the inning. His teammates ignored him—no high fives, ‘lo vistes’ or anything—when he returned to the dugout, before they eventually congratulated him. Jose Bautista followed with a walk. The Jays have done a few things to re-take the momentum. Yet again, though, an OF made a nice play on a ball the Edwin hit very well. JP Arencibia singled through the left side for the Jays eighth hit of the afternoon against Joe Saunders and the M’s. Mark DeRosa then homered to CF to give the Jays a 7-2 lead. Subbing for Lawrie today, DeRosa has homered and doubled. After circling the bases, he sat down beside Brandon Morrow on the bench. He also called the players only meeting this past wee. He’s putting his veteran leadership to good use. Ground outs by Izturis and Bonifacio brought a very productive inning (HR, BB, single, HR; 4 R) to an end.

Alright, here’s one of the most encouraging things I’ve seen in a while: Brandon Morrow needed fewer than 10 pitches (I didn’t count; it was something like 6 or 7) to retire the side and get his hot-hitting team back to the plate. (I like having Mark DeRosa on this team.)

How about this? Edwin Encarnacion has hit the ball very hard twice today, only to have the M’s OF make two good plays. This time, with Kawasaki, Melky, and Bautista on base, Edwin hit a weak grounder to 2B that was too softly hit to turn a DP, and he drove in a run. It’s like the proverbial ugly goal in hockey: it doesn’t always take a Chara slapshot or a series of Crosby moves to beat a goalie. Sometimes the puck bounces off Tim Kerr’s head.

In the top of the 7th Morrow continued to pitch to the strike zone and the situation. Good sliders, change-ups, splitters, and a high-octane heater have the M’s grabbing their gloves to play some D. The Jays’ hot offense is coming up quickly again. The first batter, Mark DeRosa, popped up to very shallow CF, but it was into no-man’s land. He hustled the whole way, and when the ball hit the turf amidst three Seattle defenders, DeRosa slid into 2B with a double. As they say, it looks like a line drive in the boxscore. Izturis followed with a weak 99-hopper to the hole in short, and was safe without a throw for his third hit of the game. DeRosa advanced to 3B to put runners on the corners with no one out. Kawasaki singled to CF to drive in the Jays’ ninth run of the game. That’s right, their 9th run on 14 hits. Topping it off, there’s no one warming up in the ‘pen, partly because Morrow re-gathered himself and is throwing a 2-hitter. He’s given up 5 walks, but 4 of those came in the troublesome 5th inning. A soft line-out to RF by Rajai was followed by Melky’s third hit and second RBI of the game. Could this be his turnaround game? Let’s hope so. He had 51 hits last May when he was juicing. I’d take a 35-hit May without the juice.

In the top of the 8th Kendrys Morales popped up right over the pitcher’s mound. DeRosa and Edwin converged, Morrow backed off, and then Edwin called for it repeatedly before tripping UP the mound. Morales was safe at 2B. Given the situation, it was one of the most comical things I’ve seen on the diamond. Morrow picked up his teammate by inducing a ground ball to SS and striking out Jason Bay. Everything has gone the Jays’ way today. Any other day, that (mis)play happens with the bases loaded, it scores a couple to make the score 5-1 M’s, and then three more runs score subsequently. Not today.

Brandon Morrow pitched 8 complete innings. Big deal? He’s the first Jays’ starter to do it this season. Steve Delabar is being asked to close this game: strike out, ground out, strike out.

That game was just about as refreshing as a bottle of ice water in the Sahara. They played well in every aspect of the game, they picked up each other (base running, fielding, etc.), Melky and Izturis had multi-hit games, and Mark DeRosa not only played well but he continued to demonstrate leadership qualities. There’s nothing bad to say about this game or their effort. Nothing at all. Great game, but there’s no time to celebrate: Tampa Bay is their next opponent.

Wes Kepstro

At What Point Can We Worry About the 2013 Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays just dropped another series to an AL East rival and there record now stands at 10-19.  They sit 10.5 full games out of first place and while nobody is suggesting a division title is won in April I think it’s time to acknowledge that they can at the very least be lost with such a disastrous month.

Perhaps 2013 is just not destined to be our season even we all still #lovethisteam.

If things continue this way and we are well out of the playoff hunt before Jose Reyes returns I wouldn’t be surprised (or disappointed) if the Blue Jays were sellers.  If they were to move some pieces to either shed payroll or pick up an interesting prospect or two they would likely have some suitors.

-Josh Johnson needs to show he is healthy if any team were to give up any blue chip prospects.  He also needs to show the looming free agent market that he can throw a full season worth of innings.  If he comes back to his career levels he makes a solid #3 starter and I am sure the team could land one pretty intriguing prospect.

2013 ZIPS (rest of season projection) 126.0 IPs, 123 hits, 40 BB – 105 K, 3.79 ERA, 3.59 FIP.

-Melky Cabrera hasn’t shown he is the same hitter without PEDs.  This is just a fact.  The numbers pre and post the steroid allegations show a completely different player.  I thought he would be more athletic than he is but his play in the left field and on the base paths leave much to be desired.  I think Anthony Gose could play to his level, at least, as well as play high caliber major league defense.  In short, no big loss.

2013 ZIPS (ROS) 551 PAs, 289/335/437, 6.5 BB%, 13.4 K%, 27 2B, 12 HR.

These projections are slanted, plain and simple.  They heavily weight his PED infused 2011/2012 seasons.  I think he would be hard pressed to come anywhere near the projected SLG%.

-Mark Buehrle is exactly who I thought he was coming into this season.  A pitch to contact lefty who’s stuff doesn’t play as well in the AL East.  He can give the Jays 200 innings and a low to mid 5.00 ERA – I don’t see much in the way of improvement at this stage of his career.  He simply gives up too many hits and in a league that can wait out a pitchers best stuff Buehrle is at times a sitting duck.  If Ricky Romero returns to form I don’t see how he couldn’t outperform him.  This should almost be a priority win or lose as Buehrle is overrated and vastly overpaid for a fifth starter.

2013 ZIPS (ROS) 145.0 IPs, 163 hits, 30 BB – 80 K, 4.53 ERA, 4.44 FIP.

-Darren Oliver could be a solid addition for a team looking for a veteran LOOGY.  He would need to improve upon his lacklustre numbers to start this season but if he does, we could likely fetch a ‘C+’ level prospect.

There is no need to completely wipe out the roster and I don’t see any reason to move Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, Brett Lawrie and a few of our top bullpen arms unless the deal was just insanely in our favour – think Jurickson Profar insane.

The players listed above could be replaced if Rogers continues to show a willingness to spend money and trades are always an option for the Blue Jays brass.  However at this time I wouldn’t doubt Alex Anthopoulos is a tad gun shy as none of his recent highly touted moves have paid any dividends yet.  Luckily Travis d’Arnaud took a ball off his foot and won’t be getting called up anytime soon (thanks Wes).

OTHER BLUE JAYS LINKS:

Blue Jays Stats Pack – April 2013 – Hitters (how much do the Jays miss Jose Reyes?)

Brett Lawrie – Blue Jays New Second Basemen?

Coming to a theatre near you Brett Lawrie starting second basemen for your Toronto Blue Jays?

Currently on a minor league rehab assignment for a rib cage strain our incumbent third basemen Brett Lawrie is taking his reps at second base with the intent of joining the big league club at the position.  Alex Anthopoulos stated that if Lawrie looks good at second then when he returns to the bigs Jose Bautista will remain at third base and Lawrie will take over at the keystone corner.

While we still aren’t sure what type of batter Brett Lawrie will be with more than 1400 careers innings at third base in the major league one thing we are fairly certain – Lawrie plays a mean hot corner.  A career 9.4 UZR in 1452.1 innings at third base is impressive especially considering he essentially began his time at third base position at the major league level.

While I love the idea of Brett Lawrie playing second base for the good of the team (and lineup) I doubt this will be a longer term fix.  Coming through the ranks not many scouts questioned the offensive abilities of Lawrie but sticking at second base was seemingly a pipe dream.

Here are a few observations and scouting reports when Lawrie was still in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system:

According to John Manuel of Baseball America, many scouts compare him to Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla.  Convinced he would hit as a pro, one scout said “real thing to remember is that Lawrie’s best position is in the batter’s box—a lot like Uggla.”  Some scouts also see him as a Jeff Kent type without the defense.

Lawrie spent last season in AA at only 19 years of age.  By midseason he led the Southern League in hits (102), extra-base hits (39), triples (11) and total bases (164).  Lawrie’s biggest weakness is his defense and scouts have noted that his throwing arm has regressed; projecting him as an outfielder should he prove to be liability in the infield.  He led all second basemen in errors, with one badly misplayed ball ending up breaking his nose.

Keith Law said in 2010:

Lawrie hit well in the Midwest League for a 19-year-old, and if he had a clear position he might have spent the second half in high-A. The Brewers did move him up two levels in mid-August, after which he scuffled. Lawrie has a good swing, almost a classic left-handed swing but from the right side, with tremendous rotation and raw power. I’ve seen him over stride in BP, but he quiets down a little in games, still taking all-out swings but with such a good swing path that he covers the plate and struggles only with changing speeds. He’s an intense, aggressive, “one-speed” player who might benefit from dialing it down a notch every now and then, and the lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder. He played all over as an amateur but settled on second in part because he thought he had a faster path to the majors there. There’s still a realistic chance he’ll have to move to first or an outfield corner, limiting his projected value.

I don’t think he’ll ever be above-average defensively at second, and he’s pretty maxed-out physically, but his bat looks like it’s going to play just about anywhere in the big leagues, and his offensive downside is very limited.

Another downside could be the already fragile Brett Lawrie would be moving to a much more physically demanding position.  Second basemen have to range much further to both sides, regularly laying out to make plays and being on the receiving end of hard slides at the bag on double-play opportunities.

This has to be one concern for the Blue Jays brass, and perhaps a major one.  Can this team really deal with another injury considering its already fragile psyche (and fan base)?  Lawrie has proven himself to be very capable (if not spectacular) fielding third basemen but is there any guarantee he can even play second effectively at the big league level?

The Blue Jays need his bat to be productive above almost anything else.  I worry that his offensive development could be jeopardized if he struggles with the transition to a brand new (and more demanding) position.  Again this might only be a temporary solution, and a sensible one considering our injury situation but trying Brett Lawrie at second base is far from a sure thing.

However given his impressive athleticism and tireless work ethic if anybody could make a concerted effort at this transition it is probably the crazy Canadian Brett Lawrie.  It’s obviously worth a shot at this point.

 

Mission ’13, Game 10: Jays win 8-4

J.A. Happ wasn’t as sharp against the Royals as he was in his first start, but he didn’t need to be. The Jays also didn’t need a good game from Jose Bautista (4 Ks). The bottom 5 players in the Jays batting order had six hits, five of which were doubles. They’re all the rage with the Jays lately and, even though I like the home run, I like this new trend. File this under strange but true: this is the second game this week that I’ve been about to comment that the Jays had fewer Ks than 2B, only to have them rack up several whiffs late in the game.

As has been the case lately though, there’s bad news attending the Blue Jays’ win. Jose Reyes was injured sliding into 2B on a steal. The extent of the injury isn’t known yet; a sprained ankle is the preliminary word. However, Buck and Tabby were eager to acquire a big name middle infielder to replace Reyes. Anyhow, he caught his spikes on the slide, turned his ankle awkwardly, and tears were shed before he was taken off the field. It seems serious but we don’t know anything for sure yet.

It’s the second time in three games that the Jays won ugly, but given the way they’re losing ugly, this is a nice change. All the weeping and gnashing of teeth, and the Jays will be a .500 team if they sweep the Royals.

Wes Kepstro

More Joey Bats, Less Joey Yaps

As the undisputed leader of the Toronto Blue Jays Jose Bautista needs to take the team in a completely different direction this season.  The fans appreciate the skills and passion Joey Bats brings to the field each night and some players are just more demonstrative on the field than others but this constant bickering with umpires needs to end, immediately.

These umpires are human beings who are sensitive to the harsh criticism and will undoubtedly harbor resentment to players they feel ‘show them up’.  It isn’t a sensible long term strategy to upset the most influential officials in all of sports – the men who literally determine the strike zone.

Here is a look at the at-bat Bautista took issue with versus Justin Masterson in the fifth inning when he was caught looking at a called third strike.

bautista-1

As you can plainly see the seventh pitch in the at-bat was borderline but according to pitch f/x caught enough of the plate to be a reasonable call.  In closing it is time to turn over a new leaf, a more respectful one, it will only benefit the team in the long run.

Get fired up, throw a tantrum, in the clubhouse.

Blue Jays Offseason Update – January 27, 2013

It is bitterly cold in Southwestern Ontario but the thought of pitchers and catchers reporting in less than twenty days is certainly helping.  Sorry for the lack of activity lately but it’s been pretty slow in the world of the Blue Jays and baseball in general.  Getting ready for the season though and we will be back up to full strength and posting frequently again! 

Be on the lookout for the 2013 Top 15 Blue Jays prospect piece!!

Here are some updates:

-The Blue Jays avoided arbitration with center fielder Colby Rasmus, agreeing to a one-year, $4.675MM deal, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm reports (on Twitter). 

QUICK TAKE: This is probably the last stand for Rasmus as a Blue Jay.  I am not overly optimistic that he will ever reach the lofty predictions of success when he first entered the league but he comes at a reasonable price.  If he slips or struggles the team has youngster Anthony Gose waiting in the wings.

-The Blue Jays announced that they signed infielder Mark DeRosa to a one-year, $750K contract for 2013. The deal with the CSE client includes a $750K club option for 2014.

Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has said he’d like to add a versatile right-handed hitting player to round out the club’s active roster. DeRosa, who turns 38 next month, bats from the right side and has experience at a variety of positions.

QUICK TAKE: I like this signing.  Our bench was almost useless last season and we wasted hundreds of ABs on less than stellar options.  This low cost move made sense.

-Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports examined the six worst teams in the American League in 2012 and looked at what steps they’ve taken to improve in the New Year.  The Blue Jays have obviously done a great deal to reverse their fortunes, but Morosi does have some concern about how the stars will mesh with one another.

QUICK TAKE: Again, it’s a long offseason and I guess this is something to write about.  I think the whole ‘chemistry’ thing in baseball is extremely overrated.  The Blue Jays aren’t guaranteed success because that is the nature of baseball but it won’t be due to chemistry, it will have to do with performance or bad luck statistically.

-The Blue Jays announced that they avoided arbitration with Emilio Bonifacio by agreeing to a one-year, $2.6MM deal. The Blue Jays also announced that they avoided arbitration with J.A. Happ, agreeing to a one-year, $3.7MM deal for 2013.

-Anthopoulos hopes the rotation provides enough innings that the team doesn’t need to seriously consider an eight-man bullpen. The Blue Jays have a pretty full bullpen, so it doesn’t appear as though free agent right-hander Brandon Lyon will return. “I don’t want to ever close the door on him, since he did a great job for us,” Anthopoulos said.

The GM stressed the importance of starting pitching depth and explained that players such as Justin Germano, Brad Lincoln and J.A. Happ provide the club with options.

-Good news on the bullpen front as Darren Oliver is returning for the upcoming season.  The left handed specialist had a superb season and adds further depth to what is shaping up to be a stellar bullpen.  Oliver posted a 2.06 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season.  Despite his advanced age, Oliver has made more than 60 relief appearances in each of the past four seasons.

-The Blue Jays signed 18-year-old right-hander Denis Villatoro to a five-year contract, Saúl Carranza of the Honduran newspaper Diez reported over the weekend (translation via MLBTR’s Nick Collias). It’s a five-year deal, according to La Tribuna. Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun notes that it’s worth $20K (Twitter link). Villatoro, who worked out for the Blue Jays before signing, said he’s “very happy” to have agreed to terms with Toronto, Carranza reports. His fastball reaches 93 mph, and he also drew interest from the Orioles, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Giants and Pirates.

 

Blue Jays Possibly Paying Steep Price for Dickey

The actual deal won’t be released or finalized until at least Sunday but the current rumours have the Toronto Blue Jays trading top prospects Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard along with veteran backstop John Buck and another prospect to the New York Mets for reigning 2012 Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, catcher Josh Thole and another prospect.

Overrating prospects is easy to do, especially ones you follow from draft day but at first glance this looks awfully steep.  We are potentially giving up a lot of controllable years on two of our top prospects.  We have plenty of interesting arms to replace Noah Syndergaard but losing Travis d’Arnaud would be especially tough given the lack of offensive prospects close to being major league ready. 

My first thought was Dickey makes our team markedly better for the next two to three seasons and right now isn’t that all that really matters?  Perhaps Alex Anthopoulos is actually selling high on TDA and Syndergaard but a part of me is nervous about this trade. 

Again we are adding a Cy Young award winner in R.A. Dickey who has been an extremely underrated pitcher over the past three years.  Teams look to contend will routinely trade away their best prospects and this is no different.  Maybe I am just unaccustomed to seeing a team from Toronto actually trying to make a splash.

R.A. Dickey is a damn good pitcher and don’t dare call him a one year wonder as that is way off base.

Here is what Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently wrote:

Apparently, there’s this idea that pre-2012 R.A. Dickey was a worthless nothing, and after his fluke season, he’s headed right back to being a trick pitch sideshow. That idea is just hilariously wrong.

61 pitchers threw at least 350 innings between 2010 and 2011. During those two years, Dickey posted an ERA- of 81, meaning that he prevented runs at a rate 19 percent better than the league average. We’re using ERA- for Dickey because knuckleballers have a long exhibited history of being an exception to FIP, by the way. That put him squarely between Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and ahead of guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Mat Latos. Not bad company.

If I had to guess at what Alex Anthopoulos was thinking (is that even allowed?) or what his strategy was it would have to be R.A. Dickey wasn’t necessarily the only pitcher targeted he just happened to be the best one available right now.  Free agent hurler Edwin Jackson is probably looking for an arm and a leg or has already informed the Blue Jays he wouldn’t sign here. 

When the top guns of the Blue Jays farm system became available I wouldn’t doubt that AA was contacted by different teams offering various arms but with most of the best young arms off the market (Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez) and other options too risky (Matt Garza) or divisional rivals (David Price) this R.A. Dickey thing just made the most sense.

I am just struggling with the fact that we essentially just traded our two best prospects for a 38-year old pitcher, albeit a very effective one.  This is certainly an “all-in” moment for the Blue Jays front office as our farm system has been stripped to the bones.  On the other hand our current regime has consistently shown the ability to build and restock the minor league ranks.

Check back when this deal is actually finalized one way or another.  I know some Blue Jays fans actually hope this deal falls apart.  This does feel very UN-Alex Anthopoulos given the way it has played out in the media and it feels very Yu Darvish like. 

Stay tuned.  John Farrell couldn’t be contacted for comment.

Ken Rosenthal Poses Hypothetical RA Dickey Blue Jays Trade Offer

The New York Mets have not yet resigned veteran knuckleball pitcher R.A. Dickey to a contract extension and there have been rumors that the Toronto Blue Jays are interested in acquiring the 2012 NL Cy Young award winner.  Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece today and came up with a hypothetical trade offer between the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays.

The Mets are far apart on a two-year extension with Dickey, major league sources say. And teams interested in trading for Dickey say the Mets’ asking price is high.

Obviously, the Mets would have moved Dickey by now if they had received a suitable offer. But Dickey’s trade value is indeed subject to debate.

“Hard guy to evaluate,” one rival GM said Saturday.

Dickey is 38. He throws a knuckleball, which many baseball officials dismiss as a “trick pitch.” And while his salary in 2013 is an absurdly modest $5 million, he is eligible for free agency at the end of the season.

So, what is his true value in a trade?

What does Rosenthal feel the offer could look like?

Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.

The Jays definitely would say “no” to this. They would be trading a combined 10 years of control over Arencibia and Gose — both of whom play premium up-the-middle positions — for one year of Dickey.

Arencibia, the veteran in the package, still is a year away from arbitration, and under club control through ’16. Travis D’Arnaud, a top prospect, eventually will surpass him. But catcher is another position of scarcity — and rising salaries — increasing Arencibia’s value.

Here, perhaps, is a better idea: Dickey for Arencibia, straight up. The Jays obviously are trying to win; otherwise, they would not have made their blockbuster with the Marlins. And while Arencibia has averaged 21.5 homers the past two seasons, his career on-base percentage, in nearly 900 plate appearances, is .275.

Any takers?


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