At What Point Can We Worry About the 2013 Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays just dropped another series to an AL East rival and there record now stands at 10-19.  They sit 10.5 full games out of first place and while nobody is suggesting a division title is won in April I think it’s time to acknowledge that they can at the very least be lost with such a disastrous month.

Perhaps 2013 is just not destined to be our season even we all still #lovethisteam.

If things continue this way and we are well out of the playoff hunt before Jose Reyes returns I wouldn’t be surprised (or disappointed) if the Blue Jays were sellers.  If they were to move some pieces to either shed payroll or pick up an interesting prospect or two they would likely have some suitors.

-Josh Johnson needs to show he is healthy if any team were to give up any blue chip prospects.  He also needs to show the looming free agent market that he can throw a full season worth of innings.  If he comes back to his career levels he makes a solid #3 starter and I am sure the team could land one pretty intriguing prospect.

2013 ZIPS (rest of season projection) 126.0 IPs, 123 hits, 40 BB – 105 K, 3.79 ERA, 3.59 FIP.

-Melky Cabrera hasn’t shown he is the same hitter without PEDs.  This is just a fact.  The numbers pre and post the steroid allegations show a completely different player.  I thought he would be more athletic than he is but his play in the left field and on the base paths leave much to be desired.  I think Anthony Gose could play to his level, at least, as well as play high caliber major league defense.  In short, no big loss.

2013 ZIPS (ROS) 551 PAs, 289/335/437, 6.5 BB%, 13.4 K%, 27 2B, 12 HR.

These projections are slanted, plain and simple.  They heavily weight his PED infused 2011/2012 seasons.  I think he would be hard pressed to come anywhere near the projected SLG%.

-Mark Buehrle is exactly who I thought he was coming into this season.  A pitch to contact lefty who’s stuff doesn’t play as well in the AL East.  He can give the Jays 200 innings and a low to mid 5.00 ERA – I don’t see much in the way of improvement at this stage of his career.  He simply gives up too many hits and in a league that can wait out a pitchers best stuff Buehrle is at times a sitting duck.  If Ricky Romero returns to form I don’t see how he couldn’t outperform him.  This should almost be a priority win or lose as Buehrle is overrated and vastly overpaid for a fifth starter.

2013 ZIPS (ROS) 145.0 IPs, 163 hits, 30 BB – 80 K, 4.53 ERA, 4.44 FIP.

-Darren Oliver could be a solid addition for a team looking for a veteran LOOGY.  He would need to improve upon his lacklustre numbers to start this season but if he does, we could likely fetch a ‘C+’ level prospect.

There is no need to completely wipe out the roster and I don’t see any reason to move Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, Brett Lawrie and a few of our top bullpen arms unless the deal was just insanely in our favour – think Jurickson Profar insane.

The players listed above could be replaced if Rogers continues to show a willingness to spend money and trades are always an option for the Blue Jays brass.  However at this time I wouldn’t doubt Alex Anthopoulos is a tad gun shy as none of his recent highly touted moves have paid any dividends yet.  Luckily Travis d’Arnaud took a ball off his foot and won’t be getting called up anytime soon (thanks Wes).

OTHER BLUE JAYS LINKS:

Blue Jays Stats Pack – April 2013 – Hitters (how much do the Jays miss Jose Reyes?)

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  23. 23 Dan May 4, 2013 at 10:42 am

    Honestly I see AA and Gibbens having this and two more seasons to show they can win. You can easily defend every move AA has made. Gibby may have a shorter leash, but AA’s decision making hasn’t been called into question by his moves. Hindsight is 20/20.

    As far as this team goes, if the hitting starts to come around this team could go on a tear. I liked the players only meeting last week and I hope we start to see some progress from it. There’s some sub-par pitchers coming up so the Jays should be on the upswing. If the hitting comes around, especially against the Yanks/Red Sox, I don’t see why this team can’t compete for at least a wildcard spot. If the Jays are within 8 games at the all-star break it could be interesting.

    However, some of this god awful baseball we’ve seen lately has to stop. Really brutal base running errors, at-bats, pitches, fielding errors etc keep popping up at least once or twice a game. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and carry on.

  24. 25 Wes Kepstro April 27, 2013 at 10:49 pm

    I think if it’s as bad as this, then there are no untouchables. Bautista’s antics and poor all-round production since the end of ’11 put him high on the dump list. If they’re sellers, then I also believe Gibbons and AA are gone. Gibbons will have demonstrated that he’s not major league material, and AA will have proven that he’s nothing more than a snake oil salesman. A perusal of his trades is hardly confidence-inspiring anymore.

    Based on little more than my own research and reflections, the end of May is the time frame I’ve established as my point of no return. IMO, if they’re within 5 games of .500 (above or below), then they’re in decent shape. It seems far-fetched the way they’re playing, though, because they’re embarrassingly bad. It also means that they need to be 2-12 games above .500 between now and then, which is unlikely. The entire division is running away from them. Who could have predicted this?

    P.S. Td’A is hurt. A foul ball fractured a bone in his foot. He’s out until mid- to late-June.

    • 26 @ALEastbound April 27, 2013 at 11:08 pm

      I agree, two full months should give us an idea of what we really have. Some of the stats should normalize and we shall see how the division looks.

      I agree both Gibbons and AA are on the hot seat. How could they not be? AA made his move and it has flopped thus far (very early yes but we are way out of it). He built up a great farm system but has spent most of his chips, even if we are back in it, we look like fringe contenders and I don’t see any justification for moving Aaron Sanchez, Osuna or other top prospects at the trade deadline.

      • 27 @ALEastbound April 27, 2013 at 11:25 pm

        I have to say of course that I still feel AA is a capable GM but he has to be judged on the results. I know some fans might think it crazy to even insinuate that he could be on the chopping block but fact is there are a TON of great baseball minds out there that most of us haven’t even heard of.

        At some point the plan has to come to fruition and a contender has to be born or you move on. This is AA’s baby, his MIA trade, his Dickey trade and his managerial choice.

        Is this a championship team? Perhaps if Reyes returns and things take a drastic turn but right now we aren’t even a .500 team. Too many strikeouts, not enough rallies, terrible defense, awful starting pitching and an overworked pen. What more can I say?

      • 28 Idiot Fan April 29, 2013 at 8:53 am

        Who’d have thunk it? AA and Gibby possibly on the hot seat in April…


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